“Investors globally, in Asia, Europe and the US, are all over this topic and want to
understand what does it mean for the UK banks, and what does it mean for the broader European banking system,” said David Hague, a managing director for Nomura, the Japanese bank.
The start of the official referendum campaign comes at a testing time for European bond issuance. Banks in particular have found their access to debt markets restricted, amid volatility and concerns about the way some riskier bonds will be treated by regulators were the issuer to run into trouble.
Debt bankers said uncertainty surrounding the UK vote will not prevent financial institutions from selling new bond issues, but is likely to have implications for the price at which they are sold.
“It’s on investors’ radars. The bond market is a bargain between a buyer and a seller,” said Mr Hague, who is responsible for financial institution debt origination in the UK and Ireland. “In times of uncertainty some of that balance moves around.”
Zoso Davies, a credit strategist at Barclays, said Brexit was a complicating factor for investors, but was an additional rather than the only concern in a year when global markets have been struck by extreme losses for several asset classes.
“It would be nice if we could take a clean, isolated view on the UK referendum but the reality is there’s a whole world of things going on,” he said. “The referendum is in the melting pot, along with everything else.
Bond issuance has been held back across Europe so far this year. European banks had sold just under $45bn of bonds by mid-February — the lowest start to a year since 2003, according to Dealogic data.
Corporate debt bankers said they have been fielding questions on the Brexit issue in recent weeks. “It is certainly an added element to the credit analysis,” said one senior debt banker.David Cameron is hoping to negotiate a new settlement between Britain and the 27 other members of the EU before a promised referendum on the UK’s continued participation in a reformed Europe
IL MERCATO DEL CREDITO IN EUROPA E' IN PRATICA CONGELATO
Companies, which tend to have greater flexibility than banks to arrange funding, can be more opportunistic in their choice of timing and location to sell debt. “Issuers are also starting to discuss logistical issues such as where to have their bonds listed, the UK versus the continent,” the banker said.
In the UK securitisation market — where loans are packaged up and sold on as bond-like instruments to investors — Allen & Overy last week drew the attention of clients to several recent UK deals for which prospectuses “have included risk factor wording intended to flag the uncertainty”.
The law firm said that while Brexit would probably result in uncertainty as to some aspects of English law, the legal principles that are used for UK securitisations should be unaffected by the UK leaving the EU.
Interruptions to bond sales were a recurring theme over 2015. Last year, primary markets closed down on several occasions due to concerns over market volatility and Greece.
Pubblicato da ML a domenica, febbraio 21, 2016CLICCA SULL'ICONA DELLA MOSCA TZE-TZE E VOTA PER QUESTO POST!