MERCATO LIBERO

I MINISTRI FINANZIARI EUROPEI si incontrano lunedì e martedi.

La scommessa è che, durante l'incontro, possano gettare le basi per RIVOLUZIONARE la strategia per risolvere la CRISI DEL DEBITO che ha colpito il sistema finanziario europeo nell'ultimo anno.

Sullo sfondo rimane l'incontro fa Obama e HU del 19 gennaio, una continua interazione fra le due superpotenze sarebbe un bel segnale per i mercati, la frizione su alcuni temi, quali l'espansione economica globale cinese e il suo rafforzamento militare potrebbe essere deleteria.

La settimana appena passata è stata caratterizzata da un MIGLIORAMENTO SIGNIFICATIVO DELLO SPREAD FRA BTP E BUND spinto da FORTI ASPETTATIVE INFLAZIONISTICHE, e dalla
speranza che l'EUROBOND prima o dopo possa passare. Per non parlare della possibilità che il fondo europeo di stabilità possa essere raddoppiato.

I FONDI HEDGE HANNO ACQUISTATO FINANCIAL EUROPEI (specie dei PIIGS)

Gli analisti delle case di brokeraggio stanno iniziando a rivalutare il settore finanziario....

I fondi sono SOTTOPESATI di financials e sono long di Industriali ....i GESTORI SONO MOLTO PREOCCUPATI E COMINCIANO IN QUESTE ORE A VALUTARE SERIAMENTE A INVESTIRE NUOVAMENTE IN QUESTO SETTORE

BASILEA 3 impone alle banche di aumentare il capitale e liberarsi di PERPETUI E SUBORDINATI...i tecnici stanno mettendo in cantiere operazioni straordinarie
per rivitalizzare il settore in modo da facilitare aumenti di capitale ....

L'abbondante liquidità presente sui mercati azionari e la fuga degli investitori dal mercato obbligazionario a lungo termine...aiuta IL DIROTTAMENTO DEI FLUSSI SU BANCHE E ASSICURAZIONI.

I MINISTRI FINANZIARI EUROPEI HANNO PIU' VOLTE ESTERNATO LA LORO VOLONTA' PER AUMENTARE IL FONDO DI STABILITA'



1) French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told journalists Friday that she and her counterparts were discussing giving the fund the power to buy government bonds on the open market -- a move that would take pressure off countries that have seen bond prices fall and funding costs rise.

2) Belgium's Finance Minister Didier Reynders, meanwhile, said the size of the fund should be doubled, to euro1.5 trillion ($2 trillion).

3)Jean Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central bank, and two top officials of the European Union's executive commission have also thrown their weight behind a new role for the bailout fund, which has so far been limited to providing rescue loans to cash-strapped countries.

4) The European Commission last week circulated a document among EU member states with some suggestions on how to broaden the scope of the fund beyond bailouts.

SONO MOLTI GLI ANALISTI CHE DICONO CHE LA STRATEGIA EUROPEA (NAZITEDESCA - come ben spiegato da Mercato libero nei mesi di ottobre e novembre) DEL 2010 PER COMBATTERE LA CRISI E' FALLITA.
Tagli di spesa, austerity, prestiti agli stati a condizioni DA USURA... non hanno portato a nessun risultato positivo, SE NON PER I TEDESCHI che ne hanno approfittato per conquistare quote di mercato a danno delle aziende nei paesi dei PIIGS.


A euro67.5 billion bailout of Ireland -- necessary after massive capital injections for big banks pushed the country's budget deficit to almost one-third of economic output -- didn't succeed in containing the crisis. Greece, which received a euro110 billion rescue loan, was on Friday downgraded by another rating agency, reflecting concern about the country's ability to pay off its debt amid a shrinking economy and falling government revenue.

Most economists expect Portugal to also ask for help soon, while markets are worried about the financial health of much larger Spain. Spain's economy makes up about 10 percent of the euro zone's gross domestic product and bailing it out could easily overwhelm the existing facility.

"Maybe now they should see one needs a new approach," Daniel Gros, director of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies and a former economist for the International Monetary Fund, said of European policymakers' scramble to stop the crisis from spreading. "It's not so much the size of the fund, but what it's used for."

Giving the bailout fund broader powers, such as directly intervening in financial markets in times of turmoil, or even providing short-term cash injections to re-capitalize wavering banks could attack the crisis at its roots, analysts say.

One big part of this new approach would be to let banks' debtors take losses if a firm is actually insolvent, and then quickly spend large sums of money buying up government and bank bonds to stop panic on financial markets, Gros said.

Germany so far has opposed significantly increasing the firing power of the existing bailout fund. But German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has raised the option of boosting the lending capacity of the euro zone's contribution to the fund so it actually reaches the advertised euro440 billion ($580 billion).

Euro-zone governments make their contribution to the euro750 billion fund by guaranteeing loans issued by the so-called European Financial Stability Facility. The remaining euro310 billion of the total fund come from the EU's executive Commission and the IMF.

However, because of the way the EFSF provides money to cash-strapped countries, it can actually lend out much less than euro440 billion. Rather than giving direct loans, the facility sells bonds to investors, with the proceeds going to the government in trouble.

To get a triple-A credit rating for those bonds -- and make them attractive to wealthy investors -- governments committed to guarantee 120 percent of their value, taking the amount it can actually lend out down to about euro367 billion. On top of that, bailed out countries have to deposit a certain portion of the loans they receive "as a cash buffer" with the fund.

Schaeuble said boosting the fund so it can actually lend out euro440 billion would not represent an actual increase and Berlin has ruled out doing anything beyond that.

But analysts warn that the way the crisis had developed, governments might soon be force to go further.

"We do these things only after we have denied even thinking about them," said Gros.

I BANCARI PRENDERANNO IL VOLO IN SETTIMANA ....(non sarei così sicuro che l'euro si rafforzi anzi...)