MERCATO LIBERO

E' ORAMAI EVIDENTE CHE L'OPERAZIONE FIAT CHRYSLER OPEL E' UN'OPERAZIONE POLITICA.

La Fiat da sola sarebbe morta (e questo Marchionne lo aveva ripetuto nel passato più volte (anche perchè oberata da miliardi di debiti)

Marchionne è riuscito (grazie a interventi politici) a inserirsi in america promettendo ai sindacati la maggioranza di Chrysler e ricevendo miliardi di soldi pubblici americani per garantire la sopravvivenza del marchio americano.

Con Opel Marchionne vorrebbe fare una cosa simile. Trovare l'appoggio del governo americano e tedesco (e i loro soldi), chissà ...magari anche dei sindacati tedeschi, che oggi si dimostrano ostili, solo per alzare il prezzo dell'accordo e entrare anche loro nella stanza del potere.

Marchionne , se riuscirà nell'impresa, passerà alla storia come IL NEGOZIATORE (dopo la negoziazione sul put GM).
Ma l'eventuale vittoria si baserà sul pesante intervento finanziario degli stati, che vorranno in cambio, una parte del controllo azionario.

Intanto Citigroup, banca salvata da Obama, non può andare contro alla politica americana e alza il target di Fiat a 9,2 euro...mentre solo ieri un'altra banca aveva riaffermato 5,5 euro.


Ma ecco cosa dice l'analista di Citigroup, dopo aver alzato il target sul titolo...
Citigroup analyst John Lawson said his main reservation was "how Fiat can support what are evidently potentially major industry changes at Chrysler or perhaps Opel on the strength of the weakest balance sheet in the sector. Unless a government third-party proves very generous, shareholders may find themselves asked to contribute


COME PER DIRE....FIAT COMPRA CON I SOLDI DEI CONTRIBUENTI.

Fiat era il partner meno scomodo per i politici. Gli altri players non avrebbero permesso al governo e ai sindacati di avere troppo potere. Fiat era alla frutta (valeva 3,5 euro e il debito era enorme). Marchionne ha dovuto osare.

PER NOI HA FATTO LA MOSSA MIGLIORE. Ma sappiate che le cose non sono come i giornali vi raccontano. Dietro a un grande progetto industriale c'è una mera operazione finanziaria con soldi pubblici.

Se poi avrà le gambe (e Marchionne dovrà fare miracoli per l'integrazione)...la Fiat sarà la maggiore beneficiaria. L'Italia un po' meno...Visto i tagli che inevitabilmente ci saranno.


Christoph Rauwald Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Fiat SpA (F.MI) Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne''s push to turn three ailing car makers into a global industrial powerhouse is unlikely to get any easier, despite his success clinching a deal with Chrysler LLC last week and enjoying a friendly reception from Germany''s economic minister Monday. The auto industry has a poor track record of successful takeovers and tie-ups, with lower-than-expected synergies and cultural differences between companies often leading to sobering experiences. Marchionne''s plan for a "marriage in heaven" features some distinct signs of a forced marriage, given that its funding is based on a dowry of millions of euros in taxpayers money and Fiat so far has approached two potential brides that havelittle or no alternatives in sight. "Quite frankly, as far as this particular Fiat dream is concerned, hell has a better chance of freezing over though at least it is probably giving Japanese competition a very good laugh," said BGC Partners strategist Howard Wheeldon. Fiat is squeezed by EUR6.6 billion net debt. Chrysler is surviving on U.S. government loans and most likely burning through even more cash than General Motors Corp.''s (GM) European operation at a time when major auto markets around the globe have collapsed and even former cash-cows such as BMW AG (BMW.XE) and Daimler AG''s (DAI) Mercedes-Benz brand are bleeding red ink. Fiat wasn''t immediately available for comment. A spokesman for GM Europe declined to comment on the chances and prospects of a deal with Fiat. "Given the loss-making status of all three parts of the combination, the new auto business will need cash injections to be viable," said Sanford Bernstein analystMax Warburton, noting that Fiat''s auto operations are loss-making when Brazil is taken out of the equation. "Whether this combination can be made to work from a management, political or cultural view is unclear," Warburton said. "We remain unconvinced that Fiat has the management depth to pull off this very ambitious task, although we acknowledge that the company clearly keeps its talent obscured," he said. Marchionne''s high-speed gambit, however, is well-timed, given that both Fiat and GM''s German Opel brand are among the biggest beneficiaries of European scrapping incentives as more consumers opt for smaller cars rather than gas guzzlers. However, these plans will expire and at some point likely will trigger a slump in demand. Marchionne has earned enormous praise for his turnaround of Fiat, but he appears to need at least the same diplomatic skills to push through painful cutbacks at Chrysler, GM Europe and Fiat itself to forge a company that can take on Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) and Volkswagen AG (VOW.XE). "Volkswagen has also mopped up many a European brand ... but then, Volkswagen did these various moves when it was in (a) strong financial position, not under (the) tight control of its bankers. Fiat doesn''t exactly have that luxury," BGC Partners'' Wheeldon said. He remains skeptical that this particular alliance would be "a neat solution to the vexing calls for auto industry consolidation, clearing the decks of some European overcapacity." Analysts estimate the synergies between Fiat and GM Europe alone at around EUR1.5 billion from procurement and product development, but significant regional and product overlaps have caused stiff opposition to the tie-up from GM Europe''s unions. Additionally, the powerful United Auto Workers union will own 55% of Chrysler, a potential roadblock for a fast and efficient restructuring. Adding to the obstacles of a successfuldeal, analysts are struggling to estimate the level of healthcare liabilities. Citigroup analyst John Lawson said his main reservation was "how Fiat can support what are evidently potentially major industry changes at Chrysler or perhaps Opel on the strength of the weakest balance sheet in the sector. Unless a government third-party proves very generous, shareholders may find themselves asked to contribute," said. -By Christoph Rauwald, Dow Jones Newswires;

ANCORA SU FIAT...