MERCATO LIBERO

Dollaro OLTRE 1,50.
Petrolio oltre i 100 dollari.
Il prezzo del grano raggiunge nuovi records.
L'inflazione calcolata sui beni acquistati regolarmente è arrivata all'8%.

C'è che dice che l'inflazione fa spendere e quindi rimette in moto l'economia.
Questa è la teoria vecchia. Il nuovo paradigma dell'inflazione importata che abbassa il tenore di vita e che non fa salire il valore delle case e delle borse porta alla catastrofe del sistema.

In questi giorni le borse stanno prendendo un abbaglio grazie anche ai dati macro tedeschi. Sono convinti che l'inflazione sia data dalla debolezza degli Stati Uniti.
Sono convinti che l'Inflazione Non ridurrà i consumi e gli utili anzi, li spingerà al rialzo.
Gli analisti sperano che le aziende (e quindi i mercati) possano fare utili simili al 2007. E poi chi se ne frega se questi utili in realtà saranno (in termini reali)
inferiori rispetto all'anno prima, in quanto mangiati dall'inflazione!

L'inflazione E' IL NUOVO OPPIO DELLE BORSE.

Visto che oramai siamo nella cacca...ecco che improvvisamente il mondo viene innondato dall'inflazione. (i dati taroccati fino a ieri per difetto, da oggi verranno taroccati per eccesso). Nei prossimi mesi america, europa e mondo intero faranno a gara ad alzare l'inflazione.
I tassi d'interesse si abbasseranno in America, in Europa rimarranno fermi....ma l'effetto sarà simile a un poderoso taglio (visto che l'inflazione salirà).

Le persone dovranno abbandonare le obbligazioni statali, quando si accorgeranno che l'inflazione non fa male alle aziende...compreranno il mercato azionario nel tentativo di mantenere la loro ricchezza. Gli immobili non scenderanno più di valore , ma tutti gli anni è come se si svalutassero del 10% (dato della nuova inflazione).

E' questa la panacea di tutti i mali? E' questa la via per evitare un nuovo 1929?
Gli assets immobiliari non scenderanno più ....ma è come se lo facessero.
Le borse si riprenderanno dando l'impressione di far guadagnare...in realtà riuscirano a malapena a reggere l'inflazione.

Ma i nodi rimarranno...
I salari? l'effetto povertà sulle persone? l'aumento dei risparmi e la drastica riduzione dei consumi?

Nel 1970 l'inflazione faceva salire anche le case e i salari (scala mobile), oggi no. L'italia è sull'orlo della povertà.

Questa volta la panacea inflattiva al massimo avrà un effetto benefico di pochi mesi ....prima della stagione più buia dei mercati mondiali.
Il tutto mentre si acccentueranno le pressioni geopolitiche.

Leggetevi questa ricerca di Standard & Poor. Signori allacciatevi le cinture di sicurezza....il popolo americano ed europeo non reggerà questa situazione a lungo.

Economic Research:
Can Europe Withstand A U.S. Recession?
Recent economic data from the Eurozone and the U.K. suggest that the downturn in the U.S. and the ongoing dislocation in the credit markets are becoming a real concern for European economies. At the G7 meeting of finance ministers in Tokyo on Feb. 9, 2008, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet recognized that there is
now "unusually high uncertainty" about growth in Europe, adding that "risks are on the downside."
While there is a general consensus among economists that the region should escape a genuine recession, most agree that a slowdown is underway. Its magnitude and duration, believes Standard & Poor's, will primarily depend on consumers' response to the new environment. Meanwhile, the strength of economic fundamentals in most countries leads to expect that Europe will show some resilience if the U.S. enters into a recession. The U.K. and Spain, however, appear most vulnerable to the global easing and to the credit squeeze given their high levels of household
and corporate debt.

Indicators Point To Slower Growth Across The Region
The economic statistics for Europe paint a gloomy picture: Retail sales in the Eurozone last December recorded their largest decline since 1995 and service industries grew at their slowest pace for more than four years. Eurostat, the
EU statistical office, recently announced that GDP growth in the single currency zone fell to 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007, less than half the pace of the previous three months. The European Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys have fallen sharply from peaks registered last summer. Data for the EU as a whole--which includes the Royal Bank of Scotland/NTC Economics Eurozone, Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/NTC Economics U.K., and ABN AMRO Central European PMIs--show that private sector output rose only modestly in January, at the slowest pace for four-and-a-half years. The services sector posted a steep downturn, with growth slipping close to stagnation and registering the weakest increase since July 2003. Manufacturing fared better, its rate of growth ticking up slightly in December, but its rate of expansion remained far below the average seen over the past two
years. Closer inspection of this data on a country-by-country basis, however, reveals the slowdown to be unevenly distributed across the region. In Italy, industrial production declined for the fourth consecutive month in December.
On a working day adjusted basis, the decline reached 6.5% over the 12 months to December--a clear sign of a major downturn. In Spain, the all-sector PMI (covering both manufacturing and traded services) registered the largest monthly fall in its eight-year history. This is consistent with an overall slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% in the final quarter of 2007, from 1.1% in the first quarter. Moreover, job losses in the construction sector totaled 22,000 in the last three months of 2007, pushing the unemployment rate to 8.6% (from 8.0% in the previous quarter). On
the other hand, the index of economic sentiment from Germany's Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) for February surprisingly rose to negative 39.5 from negative 41.6 in January, showing an improvement in business expectations when most observers had been anticipating further deterioration


Consumers Hold The Key
Consumers' response to this new environment, characterized by falling asset prices (namely stocks and housing), higher inflation (especially in the Eurozone, where it reached 3.2% in January), and unemployment no longer falling will determine to a significant extent the magnitude of the expected slowdown and its distribution across countries in the region.
Over the past 10 years, disposable income per capita, expressed in purchasing power parity, has converged in Western Europe. German households still have the biggest spending power, with €22,817 per capita, closely followed by the €21,638 of households in the U.K. (see table 1). Next, France and Italy show very similar levels, followed by Spain, which has rapidly caught up with its regional peers in the past 10 years. Furthermore, the latest available data for Spain (Q2 2007) indicates that Spanish households' disposable incomes were still growing at the
fastest rate in the Eurozone.

But consumers' disposition toward spending, saving, and borrowing vary considerably across the region. Taking savings first, two groups of countries emerge: On one side are thrifty Germany, France, and Italy, where households maintain a high level of savings compared with their overall income (see chart 1). In each of these countries, savings rates hover around 16% and were on the rise in 2007. The second group, which includes Spain and the U.K., are the exact opposite, with fast-declining savings rates (3.5% in Q3 2007 in the U.K., from 5.1% a year earlier). In other words, consumption in the second group has been growing faster than overall incomes.
When asset prices fall and the economic environment becomes more volatile, households typically tend to increase their precautionary savings, especially when these are deemed low. This would therefore apply in particular to the
U.K. and Spain. By contrast, an acceleration in consumer price inflation typically prompts consumers to fast-forward their spending and follow the view that "better buy today what could be more expensive tomorrow," but only if they perceive that acceleration as durable and significant--what's termed a "flight from money." Current
levels of inflation (3.0% in the Eurozone, 2.5% in the U.K.) do not suggest that we are in such a configuration, however. Instead, the recent acceleration in inflation is going to erode real incomes, causing a slowdown in consumer spending. Furthermore, this slowdown will be amplified in those countries with low levels of savings, namely the U.K. and Spain


Consumers, however, could also decide to borrow more to maintain the same level of spending. That is, of course, provided their level of indebtedness is not already high. For it is indebtedness that will determine how the effects of the credit squeeze will vary across individual countries. Bank surveys carried out by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) show that lenders have tightened their criteria considerably since last summer, while higher spreads have prevented mortgage and long-term interest rates from reflecting fully the decline in
short-term rates in the U.K. At a macroeconomic level, U.K. households appear particularly vulnerable. This is because their overall indebtedness
is the highest in the EU, at 97% of GDP and 108% of total disposable incomes. Data from the U.K. Office of Statistics, quoted in a study from the Centre for Policy Research (CPS) released in February 2008, suggest that mortgage interest payments for the average household have surged to £7,500 in 2007 from £3,582 in 2002--a 100%
increase. Compounding this situation, U.K. households have tended to use their homes as cash machines in past years by taking out home equity loans, an option only available outside the U.K. to (a few) households in Spain and Norway. In 2003, U.K. housing equity withdrawals peaked at a high 9% of disposable incomes (see chart 2). After dipping in 2004 and 2005, they started to rise again at the beginning of 2006. More recently, U.K. households may have used equity withdrawals to pay back some of their unsecured debt, particularly that related to credit cards.
Indeed, credit card debt fell 6.6% between 2005 and 2007. With the U.K. housing market easing and effective interest rates edging higher, housing equity withdrawals will diminish, along with the boost they used to provide to consumer spending. In turn, we may see a fresh increase in credit card debt this year.

In terms of overall exposure, Spanish households run a close second to those in the U.K., with a total indebtedness of 81% of GDP in the third quarter of 2007. By comparison, German (64% of GDP), French (45%), and Italian (33%) households appear less exposed to higher interest rates.
Tighter lending criteria in Europe is not only affecting growth in housing loans, but also in consumer credit (including both secured auto loans in Germany, for instance, and unsecured loans). In most countries, consumer credit growth has decelerated since the middle of 2007 (see chart 3) and this trend will likely be exacerbated in 2008, further dampening consumer spending.

Economic Authorities Try To Help
Monetary authorities have started to acknowledge, although still cautiously in the case of the ECB, that the balance of risks is tilting toward much slower economic growth. In its latest inflation report, published on Feb. 13, 2008, the
BoE released its gloomiest forecast in a decade, acknowledging that U.K. growth was likely to shudder to a halt in the next few months, with a high risk that it will contract. At the same time, the Bank stressed that inflation was likely to rise well above its target of 2%, and suggested that there was little room to cut interest rates much further.
Stagflation (a combination of stagnation and inflation), which would have been impossible to imagine only a year ago, is the worst-case scenario for central banks. On presenting the Bank's report, Mervyn King, Governor of the BoE, recognized that there was nothing the Monetary Policy Committee could do about sudden hikes in the price of food and other commodities, which are at the root of the current surge in headline inflation. We are reaffirming our forecast for a cut in the U.K. base rate to 4.75% (from its current level of 5.25%) by July of this year.
Yet, while the immediate prospects for the U.K. economy appear dire, any comparison with events in the early 1990s would appear inappropriate. In late 1990, the last time the U.K. was about to experience a severe recession, inflation was running at 8% and the central bank's base rate hit 15%. We now face a more moderate context,
where inflation is expected to touch 3% while real interest rates are running at 2% (not 7% as in 1990).

The ECB is taking a more cautious approach still. Its president, Mr. Trichet, announced in early February that the Bank would soon publish a new forecast for the Eurozone, a necessary step to negotiate a change of stance from a restrictive to a more accommodative monetary policy. (For more details, see article titled "European Economic Forecast: Testing Times Ahead," published Jan.30, 2008, on RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis.) Indeed, the new forecast is likely to show a much lower rate of growth for the region compared with last year, and could also anticipate a decline in headline inflation in the second half of this year from 3% at present. This should set the stage for a first cut of 25 basis points (bps) in May or June, to 3.75%. A second cut is possible in September or even earlier if economic data from the single currency zone indicates a pronounced downturn. Such modest cuts, however, will have no significant effect in the short term, especially if banks are reluctant to pass on those cuts to borrowers through lower long-term rates. But at
least they will place a floor under the dollar exchange rate against the euro, which is good news for European exporters. Foreign exchange markets seem to have already priced in these interest rate developments, which would explain the dollar's recent resilience below the 1.50 benchmark against the euro.
European governments would also like to assist in keeping their domestic economies growing, but their margin of maneuver is generally limited by the size of their budget deficits, Italy being a particular case in point. In Spain, which is one of the very few countries in the EU enjoying a fiscal surplus, Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has promised 13 million workers a one-off tax cut of €400 next June (a total tax rebate of €5.2 billion), should he be re-elected in the parliamentary elections due on March 9. In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy has his
hands tied by the level of the public deficit (2.6% of GDP in 2008, according to Standard & Poor's estimates). So the French government has been trying to encourage employees to "sell back" to their employers some of their additional holidays generated as a result of the 35-hour working week. It has also authorized private sector companies to release some of the long-term savings accumulated on behalf of employees (under a scheme comparable to a long-term incentive plan) on a tax-exempt basis. Under this latter scheme, around €10 billion could be redistributed to about 4.8 million employees. A similar measure was taken in 2005, releasing €7.5 billon. But in retrospect, households used a small fraction of that amount for consumption. Most (about 75%) was used to finance a home purchase or reinvested in savings plans. If this behavior was to be repeated following the latest hand-out, only about €2 billion-€3 billion would find its way into additional consumption--hardly enough to boost economic growth.

In summary, growth prospects appear to differ somewhat across the major Western European economies. The U.K. appears exposed to a major slowdown as consumer demand stalls and business investment is penalized by the credit squeeze and high level of corporate indebtedness. Italy is also under the threat of stagnation, with GDP growth
barely exceeding 1%. Spain appears equally at risk, although the magnitude of the slowdown may not be as dramatic as in the U.K. Germany, by contrast, will experience a mild downturn in 2008, with GDP growth falling to 1.7% from 2.7% last year. France will benefit from resilience in its consumer demand, but remains weakened by a
counter performance on the foreign trade side. Overall, French GDP growth should average about 1.8% this year (against 1.9% in 2007).

Better Prospects For Scandinavian Economies
The Scandinavian economies appear in many ways exempt from the worries affecting the rest of Europe. Prospects remain good even if a mild slowdown is in sight for the next 18 months: Inflation is accelerating modestly, and government budgets are in surplus--a feature shared by only a few countries in Europe.

Still-buoyant housing market and low unemployment bolster Sweden…
In Sweden, real GDP growth slowed in 2007 after an exceptional performance in 2006 (see chart 4). This mild slowdown was mainly attributable to less buoyant exports. Domestic demand, meanwhile, remains dynamic.
Consumption in particular has been boosted by rising real incomes and tax cuts, and is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2008 (mirroring the level of 2007) before easing back to 2.8% in 2009. The overall wealth of Swedish households
has been boosted by the rapid rise in house prices since the beginning of the decade. Although the most recent data point to a modest slowdown in housing activity, there is no sign that the real estate market is about to turn, unlike
in other European markets such as the U.K. These favorable conditions, combined with persistently low unemployment (4% of the labor force in January 2008, unchanged from last year) will support a steady growth in consumer demand.
Solid external and domestic demand prospects have also contributed to a major upswing in capital formation since 2004. After another year of very strong growth in 2007 (8.7%), lower corporate profitability, higher interest rates,
and a more uncertain international environment are likely to weigh on business investment in 2008, causing a slowdown to 4.5% (2.6% in 2009).

Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, has raised its reference rate 11 times since the beginning of 2006. The last hike was announced in February 2008, pushing the rate to 4.25%. The Bank is confronted with the same dilemma as other European central banks, namely balancing the threat of lower growth against the risk of higher inflation. As in the rest of Europe, headline inflation in Sweden has surged on the back of higher international commodity prices, to2.5% in December from a low of 1.2% last August. In contrast with most other EU countries, however, we note
that core inflation (excluding volatile items such as food) has also accelerated over the same period to 2.0% from 0.7%.
Before taking any further action, the central bank will want to make sure that the expected slowdown in economic growth this year remains mild. In our view, its most likely course of action will be to keep rates on hold through the better part of 2008. In the final months of the year, an additional hike by 25 bps is a distinct possibility if, as we expect, the Swedish economy shows strong resilience in the face of less favorable international conditions while inflation continues to hover around 2.5%

… But readjustments are overdue for Norwegian households
The prospects for the Norwegian economy appear equally encouraging, although readjustments in the household sector are overdue. In 2007, Norway enjoyed its fourth year of strong growth, with real GDP growth of 3.3% (Standard & Poor's estimate), supported by dynamic domestic demand. Private consumption in particular grew at an estimated 7% last year. Investment growth, meanwhile, was supported by the development of two mega-projects in the oil sector, now completed.
In 2008 and 2009, lower employment growth and higher inflation are likely to weigh on consumer demand. After years of rapid growth, Norway's housing sector is showing signs of cooling off (see chart 5). The boom in the country's real estate market has been exceptionally long, having started in 1992. In the final two months of 2007,
however, prices declined according to the Norwegian central bank's latest economic bulletin. As most household loans are adjustable-rate loans, higher interest rates will rapidly hit borrowers, causing a slowdown in their discretionary spending. Higher rates will also translate into lower home equity withdrawals, a form of credit that grew spectacularly from its introduction in 2005 to reach 15% of mortgage debt in October 2007. Total household debt, meanwhile, reached 190% of disposable incomes last year. In the new financial environment of higher rates
and tighter lending criteria, it's time for Norwegian consumers to improve their finances by saving more and spending less.

Norway's central bank has raised its reference rate by 350 bps since the middle of 2005, to 5.25%. Core inflation has only mildly increased, to 1.8% in December 2007, but with the economy running close to full capacity and a low unemployment rate (2.5% in Q3 2007, down from 3.4% a year earlier) fuelling higher wage claims, the central
bank needs to adhere to a fairly restrictive policy. We therefore expect that it will raise its leading rate one more time in the third quarter, to 5.50%.
Overall, we believe Norway's economy is about to experience a mild slowdown after years of very rapid growth. As consumer demand moderates, real GDP growth will decelerate to 2.8% this year and 2.5% in 2009, from 3.3% in 2007.
Eastern Europe Won't Escape The Slowdown Eastern European countries are equally exposed to a slowdown in 2008, but a number may see a fresh recovery in
2009. The Czech Republic experienced strong GDP growth in 2007 (6.0%) on the back of robust consumer demand, which rose 6.1% in the first nine months of the year and capital formation. Rising inflation and higher interest rates, however, are likely to curb that growth in 2008. Slower growth in the Eurozone will also penalize Czech exports and reduce the net foreign trade contribution to overall growth. We expect GDP growth to slow to 4.0% this year before picking up to 5.5% next year. Czech exports should be boosted by the new Hyundai auto plant, which will increase capacity in 2009. Inflation accelerated steadily through 2007, reaching 5.5% year-on-year in December. In 2008, increases in indirect taxes, utilities, and rents are expected to fuel headline inflation to 6%. The Czech central bank increased its official rate four times last year. It hiked again in February, pushing its leading rate to 3.75%. On the back of higher inflation this year, we expect it to implement at least one more hike to 4.00%.
The Polish economy also grew at a fast clip in 2007 (6.5%) on the back of robust fixed-capital formation, which was up 20%. Rising real wages and higher employment should continue to support consumer demand in 2008-2009. But higher interest rates and lower corporate margins will weigh on business investment. Overall, we
expect Polish GDP growth to average 5% in 2008 and 4.3% in 2009. As in the rest of Europe, high commodity prices pushed up inflation to 4% in 2007 (from 1.4% in 2006). Higher employment has also been supportive of higher wages. As a result, the Polish central bank has maintained a restrictive stance, pushing its leading rate to
5.25%. We expect several more hikes this year, to 6.00% by year-end.
Hungary's economy stands apart in the region in that growth was subdued in 2007 (2.0%, after 3.9% in 2006; see chart 6) on the back of weak consumer demand and capital formation. Furthermore, without last year's significant restocking effects, domestic demand would have almost certainly contracted. The country has been going through a
period of fiscal tightening aimed at reducing the budget deficit (9.2% of GDP in 2006). In 2008, fiscal policies will not weigh as much on domestic demand, leading us to expect a mild recovery in GDP growth to 2.5%. Nevertheless, high commodity prices mean any deceleration in inflation, which surged to 8% last year mainly due to higher indirect taxes, will only be gradual in 2008. The Hungarian central bank maintained a restrictive stance in 2007, keeping its base rate at 7.50% at its December meeting. We believe there is a chance that the central bank will relax
this stance as inflation starts to recede in 2008. In that scenario, the Hungarian base rate could drop to 6.50% by year-end. Downward pressures on the florint, however, could prevent such a move by the central bank

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