CARO MAZZALAI, OVVIO CHE E' DEFLAZIONE...PECCATO CHE QUALCUNO SI 'E BECCATO IN FACCIA UNA PERDITA DEL 10% E UN RIALZO DELL'1% DEL DECENNALE
DRAGHI E' PRONTO AD ALLUNGARE IL QE? OTTIMO PER IL DOLLARO E I MERCATI ..MA LO FARA' SOLO A DICEMBRE IL 15 DICEMBRE E SOLO DOPO CHE IL 14 DICEMBRE LA FED ALZERA' I TASSI..(ma occhi puntati il 30 novembre all'opec ...è fondamentale che il risultato porti al rialzo il prezzo del petrolio altrimenti ....)PARITA' EURO DOLLARO PER FINE ANNO ?
E' ovvio che afferma che arrivera' la deflazione e che i tassi son destinati a scendere...Ovvio prima o poi....ma se prima arrivassero al 3%.....sarebbe un altro bagno di sangue....
In the very near term a fragile, highly indebted US economy will suffer a traditional end of cycle acceleration in consumer prices,
and more importantly wages, which the Fed simply cannot ignore. I think it is entirely plausible that bond vigilantes could force them into two rate hikes in the first half of next year, with more being quickly discounted. Even if the Fed refuses to tighten, monetary conditions will tighten dramatically anyway as bond yields and the dollar surge, exacerbating the profits recession. This very long economic recovery will then suffer a very traditional death.
Over the next 12 months little will happen on the fiscal side in the US as any stimulus is slated for 2018/19. Meanwhile in the near term the oil price will drive a pick-up in headline US CPI inflation into the 2½-3% range, forcing wage inflation decisively higher. Bond vigilantes
could easily decide the Fed is way behind the tightening curve and the current bond rout could then extend all the way to the long-term trend line.
A move in US 10y yields to 3¼% is entirely plausible and would still not negate the long-term bullish trend. Indeed in the next recession I still expect 10y yields to ultimately fall to minus 1% as helicopter money is adopted to finance Trump’s double-digit fiscal deficits.
Pubblicato da ML a sabato, novembre 19, 2016CLICCA SULL'ICONA DELLA MOSCA TZE-TZE E VOTA PER QUESTO POST!