MERCATO LIBERO

lo yen torna debole in attesa delle decisioni della Bank of japan e del piano di stimoli di ABE (una prima forma di helicopter money) , la borsa nipponica ovviamente rimbalza e altrettanto ovvimanete la borsa cinese scende ( le due economie al momento sono inversamente legate. Uno yen forte rende meno competitiva l'economia giapponese che esporta favorendo quella cinese e viceversa).

Vola Apple nel dopo borsa dopo i risultati deludenti ma un outlook positivo da parte della societa'. I futures americani sono quindi positivi e anche l'europa dovrebbe aprire bene.

In italia ieri la trimestrale di CNH ha fatto volare il titolo, oggi tocca a enel e telecom e man mano a tutte le societa' di piazza affari nei prossimi 10 giorni....ci si attende un flusso di notizie POSITIVO per piazza affari...in particolare le banche..le cui trimestrali unite agli stress test potrebbero portare a rialzi anche importanti).
Telecom in particolare oggi dovrebbe iniziare una risalita con un target price di MERCATO LIBERO a 1 euro

Oro debole e dollaro forte e petrolio in discesa. Sul petrolio sono convinto che sia pronto a un forte rimbalzo anche in presenza di una capacita' produttiva in eccesso....il motivo? l'articolo di Rischio calcolato che sostiene che potra' scendere e di molto. ma attendiamo almeno i 40 dollari...

oggi c'e' la FED ....le attese sono per un nulla di fatto sui tassi...tuttavia saranno , come al solito , importanti le parole.

Nel nostro modello la Fed dovebbe cercare di alzare i tassi nei prossimi mesi , ma per farlo avrebbe bisogno di reflazionare (o inflazionare) e affinche' questo avenga ci sono 4 condizioni

1) salita materie prime

2) bassa disoccupazione e aumento salari

3) buoni dati macro e aziendali

4) nessuna particolare crisi economico/finanziaria nel mondo

Se riuscisse ad alzare i tassi l'euro scenderebbe e questo darebbe respiro all'economia europea e renderebbe meno pesante il fardello del debito alle banche.

Unico problema è il saldo di bilancia commerciale UE VERSO MONDO. Un saldo troppo forte che sta impedendo la discesa dell'euro. Anche in questo caso mi attendo qualche cosa che riduca tale sbilancio.

Tuttavia potremmo anche assistere a una discesa dei consumi interni dovuta al terrorismo, anche in questo caso l'euro potrebbe indebolirsi. Stiamo a  vedere che cosa ci portera' l'agosto e  rimaniamo posizionati con un portafoglio che dovrebbe essere in grado di sfruttare la situazione.

DEUTSCHE BANK ha rilasciato dei dati trimestrali pessimi ma meglio delle attese....tutto sommato un nulla di fatto...qui di seguito trovate la analisi dei dati usciti.



Deutsche Bank AG, which runs Europe’s biggest investment bank, said second-quarter profit was almost wiped out as trading revenue slumped and it set aside money to reduce jobs, with Chief Executive Officer John Cryan signaling possible deeper cuts.
Net income decreased to 18 million euros ($20 million) from 796 million euros a year earlier, the Frankfurt-based company said in a statement on Wednesday. Analysts forecast a loss of 22 million euros, according to the average of 11 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The forecasts ranged from a profit of 524 million euros to a loss of 1.8 billion euros.
Cryan, 55, has been cutting risky assets, freezing dividend payments and eliminating about 9,000 staff to boost capital levels and reverse a slump that has made the stock the worst-valued global investment bank. His task has been complicated by mounting legal costs, record-low interest rates and volatile markets, with Britain’s decision to exit the European Union clouding economic prospects and potentially weighing on deal-making across the region.
“While our results show that we are undergoing a sustained restructuring, we are satisfied with the progress we are making,” Cryan said in the statement. “If the current weak economic environment persists, we will need to be yet more ambitious in the timing and the intensity of our restructuring.”

Deutsche Bank has lost about 43 percent of its market value this year. At about a third, the company has the lowest price-to-tangible book value of the world’s nine largest investment banks. The discount indicates that it’s worth less than investors would expect to receive if the firm liquidated its assets.
Net revenue fell to 7.39 billion euros in the second quarter from 9.18 billion euros a year earlier, while risk-weighted assets fell 3.4 percent to 402 billion euros over the same period. The cost-to-income ratio, a measure of profitability, was 91 percent, up from 85 percent a year ago. Restructuring and severance expenses surged to 207 million euros in the second quarter from 45 million euros a year earlier.
Deutsche Bank executives have struggled to reassure investors of the bank’s ability to increase its capital levels and pay coupons on certain debt securities. The lender’s common equity Tier 1 ratio, a key measure of its financial strength, rose to 10.8 percent at the end of June from 10.7 percent three months earlier. That’s in line with analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Trading Slump

The company missed a goal of completing the sale of a 20 percent stake in Chinese lender Huaxia Bank Co. in the second quarter, a key step in raising capital levels. That transaction will be completed in the second half, adding about 40 basis points to the capital ratio, according to the statement.
Cryan has repeatedly said he doesn’t plan to sell shares, telling investors in May that the firm is making progress with its overhaul and that he is “convinced we can realize this transformation with our own funds.” Deutsche Bank has raised 21.7 billion euros from investors through three capital increases since the global financial crisis forced lenders from Commerzbank AG to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc into bailouts.Deutsche Bank said it has begun discussions with the U.S. Department of Justice on a potential settlement of claims based on the regulator’s investigation of the bank’s RMBS origination and securitization activities.
With regulators stepping up scrutiny of riskier activities, the German lender pulled out of some capital-intensive businesses at the global markets unit run by Garth Ritchie. Fixed income and currencies trading revenue, the largest source of income, fell 19 percent to 1.82 billion euros in the second quarter. That’s below the 1.95 billion euros projected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Postbank Profit

The five largest U.S. investment banks saw their combined debt trading revenue rise 22 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Equity trading revenue slipped 31 percent to 720 million euros in the quarter from a year earlier, missing the 754 million-euro average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Revenue at the corporate and investment banking unit, which comprises underwriting and transaction banking and is led by Jeff Urwin, fell 12 percent to 1.89 billion euros, in line with analyst estimates.
Pretax profit from consumer banking and wealth management fell 61 percent to 187 million euros in the quarter from a year earlier, while the asset management business saw earnings decline 35 percent to 171 million euros. The pretax loss at Deutsche Bank’s unit for winding down unwanted assets narrowed to 632 million euros from 870 million euros a year earlier, according to the company.
The Postbank division, which was earmarked for a sale, reported a pretax profit of 179 million euros in the second quarter, up from 88 million euros a year earlier.
Deutsche Bank is among the first large European lenders to release second-quarter results. Credit Suisse Group AG, which also restructured its businesses, and France’s BNP Paribas SA are scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, followed by UBS Group AG on Friday.