ANALISI DI UN PRIMARIO ASSET MANAGER INTERNAZIONALE
The latest results from our model of
the global economy, based on data published up to last
week, indicate that the dip in global economic activity
that was apparent in the early part of this year has now
been reversed. In fact, in early July the models are
reporting that underlying global activity growth has
risen to 3.25 per cent, which is the highest since last
November, when the Chinese and US economies both
embarked on a slowdown. That now appears to have
been temporary, and the world economy has resumed
growing at near its trend rate.
There has been a simultaneous improvement in
activity growth in many regions of the world in the past
two months – including in the US, the UK, Japan and
China – which increases our confidence that the pickup
in activity is genuine.
However, it is noteworthy that while US activity has
now re-accelerated, the euro area has slowed
moderately from the firm growth (by its own
standards) reported earlier in the year. Therefore a gap
of almost 1 percentage point has opened up between
US (2.6 per cent) and euro area (1.7 per cent) growth,
after a period in which the two regions were running
neck-and-neck.
Within the euro area, there has been a marked recent
slowdown in Spain, which had previously been the
strongest of the major European economies. It is
possible that the Greek crisis has had some effects on
economic confidence in Spain, as shown in recent
weakness in business survey data.
In the emerging economies, recent data have been
mixed, with the improvement in China offset by
pronounced weakness in Brazil, Russia and some
smaller Asian economies. It is too early to conclude
that the slowing in activity in the emerging economies
is definitively over, but the signs are improving
somewhat.
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