ALLA SCOPERTA DI UN MERCATO AZIONARIO CHE POTREBBE TRIPLICARE IN POCHI ANNI: IRAN
MERCATO LIBERO VI HA PARLATO DELL'IRAN GIA' QUALCHE MESE FA ...STIAMO CONTINUANDO A CERCARE IL MODO PER VISITARLO BEN PRESENTATI.....AL MOMENTO SENZA PARTICOLARE SUCCESSO..
SE QUALCHE LETTORE RIESCE A ORGANIZZARE INCONTRI IN IRAN LEGATI AL BUSINESS SIAMO PRONTI A MUOVERCI.
NEL FRATTEMPO IL MERCATO AZIONARIO IRANIANO E' IL PIU' INTERESSANTE AL MONDO:
SE NE OCCUPA ANCHE IL FINANCIAL TIMES IN QUESTE ORE CHE CONFERMA LA POSSIBILITA' CHE I NEGOZIATI CON GLI AMERICANI POSSANO PORTARE A BUONI RISULTATI GIA' NEL FINE SETTIMANA
(AVETE CAPITO IL MOTIVO PRINCIPALE DEL CROLLO DEL PETROLIO??? IL COSTO DI PRODUZIONE E' DI 10 - 15 DOLLARI E CON LA FINE DELLE SANZIONI IL PETROLIO IRANIANO POTRA' INVADERE IL MONDO...E IL PREZZO E' CROLLATO DEL 16%
ECCO L'ARTICOLO DA NON PERDERE
Interested in a stock market trading on a price/earnings multiple of 5.35 and with a dividend yield of 13.7 per cent?
A market that has less than 1 per cent foreign ownership but could become the largest frontier
market with a weighting of 20-25 per cent in the next few years?
There’s a catch of course. It is very difficult for western investors to access Iran, the country in question. But that could change as soon as this week, should negotiations in Vienna aimed at easing economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for permanent curbs on its nuclear programme prove successful.
“Iran’s potential emergence from isolation could be the most significant opening of an economy since the fall of the Soviet Union and the US rapprochement with China,” says Shahin Shamsabadi, head of business intelligence for the Middle East and north Africa at The Risk Advisory Group, a consultancy.
Dominic Bokor-Ingram, portfolio adviser at Charlemagne Capital, a London-based emerging markets house, adds: “Iran has a $106bn market cap, $100m daily turnover and very advanced settlement, trading and custody systems. You won’t find another closed market anywhere else in the world with those characteristics.”
Foreign investors are paying attention, according to Radman Rabii, vice-president for international clients at Firouzeh Asia Brokerage, an arm of Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based investment house.
Mr Rabii claims his company has hosted delegations from more than 100 investment groups since a negotiating framework was agreed in Geneva in November 2013, a process that has accelerated since a blueprint was agreed in Lausanne in April.
These include almost every big investment house running emerging market, frontier or Middle East and north African (Mena) funds, he says.
“The potential of Iran is so huge. As one of the last markets to be opened up to the world it has so many potential growth opportunities,” Mr Rabii adds.
Enthusiasts point to Iran’s diverse economy and stock market. Despite having the world’s largest combined oil and gas reserves, the hydrocarbon industry accounts for just 15 per cent of Iran’s gross domestic product, which as of 2013 was the 18th largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity, at $1tn or $16,165 a person.
In contrast, oil accounts for more than half of the GDP of rival Saudi Arabia, although the divergence is partly due to the sanctions that have cut Iran’s oil production to 2.8m barrels a day, from 3.6m b/d in 2011.
With production costs of just $10-$15 a barrel, according to Turquoise, the easing of sanctions and return of western expertise and spare parts could boost production by 500,000 b/d within three to six months, according to Facts Global Energy, a consultancy, bolstering public finances.
Oil products account for just 6 per cent of the market capitalisation of Tehran’s 316-company strong stock exchange, however, which has far bigger exposure to chemicals, banking and base metals.
Mr Rabii points out that Iran is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle East, led by two listed companies making their own vehicles and those of French and Chinese marques: Iran Khodro, which produces 850,000 vehicles a year, and SAIPA, with a capacity of about 600,000.
Turquoise and Charlemagne have already agreed to join forces with an equity fund aimed at international investors, which is likely to be launched as soon as sanctions are lifted.
Mr Bokor-Ingram says Charlemagne has had a “huge amount of interest” from both individuals and institutional investors.
Assuming an agreement is reached and sanctions lifted, he sees the possibility of a “triple whammy” for equity investors from a strengthening currency, a rise in corporate earnings and a re-rating of the market to something at least akin to the 15x earnings of Saudi Arabia, which alone would mean a tripling of share prices.
“Given the structure of the market and the potential growth companies, it should probably be on 20 times,” says Mr Bokor-Ingram, something he envisages could happen in the next three to four years.
He also sees opportunity in Iran’s local currency corporate bond market. Legislation dictates that these bonds are guaranteed by the bank that sponsors them, rather than the issuer, and they must pay a minimum interest rate of 20 per cent, potentially attractive given that inflation is 14 per cent and falling.
Mr Bokor-Ingram sees the appeal of such bonds as part of the reason why Iranian equities are so cheap.
Mr Shamsabadi identifies significant foreign interest, whether in the form of portfolio or foreign direct investment, in five industries: energy, aviation, automotive, banking and fast-moving consumer goods, particularly retail and food and drink.
“[At the moment] people cannot walk downstairs to a Starbucks or Pret. Every franchise company is looking to get its franchise in Iran. It’s kind of a race right now,” he says.
But foreign investors might be somewhat surprised by property prices, in the capital at least, Mr Shamsabadi adds.
“Real estate prices are extremely high. Tehran is equivalent to the nicest parts of London, Geneva or Dubai. It’s a large metropolitan city and there is not much space left. You can pay probably the equivalent of Kensington and Chelsea.”
Investing in Iran may also throw up other challenges. Mr Shamsabadi warns that “navigating the local market and ensuring that you are working with the right partners will be a priority to avoid commercial, reputational and potential criminal risk”.
In particular, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, created by Ayatollah Khomeini during the 1979 Islamic revolution, operates a business empire so large that one western diplomat recently estimated its annual turnover at $10bn-$12bn.
Mr Shamsabadi, who views the IRG’s commercial influence as akin to that once wielded by the Vatican in Italy, warns that some organisations it is connected to are classified as terrorist organisations in some countries.
“There will be times where they are sitting on the other side of the table. There is always the reputational risk. Do you want to do a deal with them?” he asks.
Aside from the alleged terrorist link, Mr Bokor-Ingram does not think the situation is dramatically different from that in the many other emerging market countries where an arm of the state has cornered many of the best investment opportunities, such as Saudi Arabia, where the royal family is dominant.
Despite this, Mr Rabii is confident that foreign money will start flooding in soon after any agreement is signed and the Swift international currency clearing system, which has been suspended in Iran as part of the sanctions regime, is reinstated.
“[The Iranian stock market] has less than 1 per cent foreign ownership, compared to Turkey, where it is around 60 per cent,” he says. “As soon as the Swift system reopens we will access a lot of money that has been sitting outside Iran waiting to come in.
“The Europeans [will be first]. A lot of them have continued doing business with areas that were not sanctioned by the EU. The Americans have been away almost 40 years now, so it’s more exotic for them.”
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
2 commenti:
come entrare sul mercato azionario iraniano?ho provato a cercare fondi ed etf ma non vedo niente..grazie
mumble mumble ...
iran e usa negoziano sul nucleare e se trovassero l'accordo, toglierebbero l'embargo sui suoi prodotti, petrolio ...
gli usa, però, hanno parecchie imprese che hanno investito molto nello shale oil ...
sicuri sicuri che troveranno l'accordo e che questo accordo non avrà qualche clausolina scritta in piccolo che "scoraggi" l'Iran dal fare troppa concorrenza?
Cordialmente
Paolo
Posta un commento