I TASSI SUL BUND SONO SALITI DEL 750% IN POCHE SEDUTE! PER IL BTP LA PAROLA D'ORDINE E' STABILITA'
QUESTA SERA IL RENDIMENTO DEL BUND E' SALITO ALLO 0,455% ..SOLO POCHE SEDUTE FA ERAVAMO ALLO 0,06%. Una salita cosi' ...comporta una discesa del 7% del dax...(discesa che è gia' stata fatta)
nessun problema in italia..lo pread è crollato vicino ai 100 punti base...quindi il rendimento del BTP e' sempre in area 1,50% ..per le banche italiane stracolme di BTP al momento il rischio di innalzamento dei tassi si allontana.
PER MERCATO LIBERO..A DFFERENZA DEL PENSIERO DEL RISCHIO INCONTROLLATO...IL RENDIMENTO DEL BUND SI PIAZZERA' FRA 0,35% E 0,55%, LO SPREAD BUND BTP POTRA' SCENDERE ANCHE SOTTO I 100 PUNTI BASE E IL RENDIMENTO DEL BTP POTRA' TORNARE INTORNO AL 1,30%.
Il dollaro potrebbe aver finito la discesa, ma attenderei area 1,15. Il petrolio sta iniziando a stornare. il mio target di acquisto è molto inferiore...stiamo a vedere...
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Bloomberg la pensa diversamente!
U.S. Crude Production
The meteoric rise in U.S. oil production has ended, easing a global glut and driving a rebound in crude prices from below $50 a barrel, according to crude trader and hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall.
“We have now reached a turning point,” Hall said in a letter Friday to investors in Astenbeck Capital Management LLC, his commodities hedge fund. Growing demand and supply pullbacks “rendered all the doomsday forecasts self-defeating.”
Oil production from Texas to North Dakota peaked at almost 10 million barrels a day in February and has been falling since then, Hall wrote. A drastic reduction in drilling rigs is starting to shrink U.S. oil output, according to government data cited by Hall.
That’s helped drive a 36 percent rally in the past six weeks, and prices will continue to rise because it will be harder for producers to ramp up than it was to cut back, Hall said in his letter. Lower crude prices have also boosted demand, while the risk of supply disruptions across the Middle East is growing amid sectarian tensions.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, settled at $59.15 a barrel Friday, marking a 3.5 percent rise for the week. It fell 33 cents on Monday to $58.82 a barrel.
Astenbeck funds were up more than 10 percent through April, and gained 10 percent in 2014 even as oil fell by more than half, according to people familiar with its performance, who asked not to be identified because the information was not public.
$100 Million
Known for making aggressive bets on rising oil prices, Hall became renowned in 2009 after being paid about $100 million while at Citigroup Inc., a bank that received government assistance during the financial crisis. For more than two decades he led Phibro LLC, a commodities trading company bought from Citigroup by Occidental Petroleum Corp.
Phibro is in the process of being shuttered by Occidental. Hall separated from Phibro last year and is now exclusively focused on Astenbeck. Founded in 2010, Astenbeck manages a total of about $3 billion.
Hall’s production estimate is based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA’s numbers have been closely watched by the market for signs that a record pullback in the number of rigs drilling for oil since October has begun to reduce output.
The EIA has predicted that oil output from major shale plays would begin to decline in April. Total average daily U.S. production will peak this year in the second quarter before falling by 210,000 barrels in the third quarter, the agency said in a report last month.
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