2014 LA FINE DELLA FINE DEL MONDO
"The End Of The End Of The World." AFFERMA CHE LA CRISI FINANZIARIA ED ECONOMICA CHE ABBIAMO VISSUTO IN QUESTI ANNI E' TERMINATA.T
Strategist Michael Kurtz and Co. SCRIVE:
There
wasn’t any memo, but FYI the Global Financial Crisis is over. Not that
clocks have simply rewound to 2006, but: the US property market has been
recovering for no less than 20 months, the US household balance sheet
is largely repaired, the renminbi is stronger and the US-China current
account imbalance vastly reduced, China is grasping the nettle of
structural reform, European core-vs-periphery cost differentials have
substantially narrowed, and Europe is growing again.
Looking forward, we thus see 2014 as a year in which macrosystemic risks will not dominate equity performance
– unfinished QE ‘taper’ business notwithstanding – but equally as a
result, a year in which returns will not be spirited along by ‘risk
compression’ and multiple expansion either. Rather, global stocks in 2014 will stand or fall in large part simply on whether they deliver earnings.
The good news is, 2014 should serve up a reasonably robust growth
platform for global corporate earnings: Our economists expect global
nominal GDP growth to rise to 7.0% next year from 2013’s 6.1% -- leaving
our strategy preferences inclined toward cyclical- and
reflation-sensitive sectors. But the acceleration will be unevenly
skewed toward the Developed Market economies, while Emerging Market
growth plateaus and China’s growth further moderates (to 6.9% in real
terms).
Looking
toward 2014, we believe much of the ‘deep value’ argument for stocks
has now played out as the Global Equity Risk Premium has fallen to just
0.4 standard deviations currently vs. its late-2011 high of 2.2 standard
deviations. With this, global equities have outperformed the aggregate
global bond index since mid-2012 by a sizeable 45% over the same time
period.
From
here, equities will increasingly require more of a growth rationale for
upside, rather than the macro-risk compression of 2012-13. The fact is,
after fairly undramatic passages (by 2010-12 standards) of such episodes
this year as the Cyprus banking failure and October’s US fiscal
standoff, very few developments from here are likely to rise to the
level of true systemic contagion threats. But this also begs the
question where the superlative earnings growth will be found.
So where will that growth be found? Nomura's strategists are particularly bullish on Japan and Europe.Conversely, they're concerned that the US will see margin compression (due to mean reversion) and like many others they're not particularly optimistic about emerging markets. As for sectors, they like tech, industrials, consumer discretionary stocks, and financials.
Again though, the big picture is that the days when stocks would rise just thanks to systemic fears dissipating is over. Now the hunt is on for real growth.
NOMURA AFFERMA CHE LA CRISI SISTEMICA E' TERMINATA. LE AZIONI SONO BEN PREZZATE E SALIRANNO SOLO SE CI STARA' CRESCITA VERA, GIAPPONE ED EUROPA SONO I MERCATI DA PREFERIRE.
MERCATO LIBERO RITIENE POSSIBILE UNA TALE VISIONE, ANCHE SE NON NE CONDIVIDO QUESTO SICURO OTTIMISMO....MA L'EUROPA RIMANE IL VERO DILEMMA, E IN PARTICOLARE LA PERIFERIA D'EUROPA.
PERIL RESTO IL MONDO STA CAMBIANDO IN FRETTA E LA CRESCITA CHE MERCATO LIBERO HA VERIFICATO IN MOLTE AREE DEL MONDO E' REALE ...E PRONTA AD ESSERE COLTA PER COLORO CHE SI MUOVONO E SE NE VANO DALL'ITALIA DELLA VERGOGNA.
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