BANK OF AMERICA: NEI PROSSIMI MESI ATTENDETEVI CIO' CHE NON E' ATTESO!
-I PIL di germania e francia sono meglio delle attese e i tassi sui titoli pubblici salgono..in modo tale da mettere sotto pressione i tassi sul debito pubblico italiano .
- la cancellazione dell'Imu in autunno fara' sognare l'italiota....salvo poi sostituirla con una tassa differente ma altrettanto pesante...
- Montepaschi di Siena . Il PDiessino Profumo, reo di aver perso soldi con Zalesky e di aver messo in ginocchio l'Unicredit....incontra il PDiessino Letta e il mercato scommette su un cavaliere straniero che rilevi per un miliardo (aumento di capitale in mano a Pofumo...e...senza diritto di opzione) una fetta consistente della banca..L'IMPORTANTE E' RIPORTARE IL TITOLO VERSO 0,28 DOVE LA FONDAZIONE SARA' NUOVAMENTE VENDITRICE ..PER NO FALLIRE...POI SI VEDRA'...
-In Giappone Abe rilancia sul taglio alle tasse alle imprese visto che la prima parte della sua politica comincia a vacillare..rinforza la dose..tanto il debito pubblco lo compra la banca centrale..poi si vedra'..
-in Inghilterra e in america il costo per prendere a prestito i soldi sale a liveli che non si vedevano da anni.
-ATTENZIONE AL FRANCO SVIZZERO...RIMANE SOPRAVALUTATO IN QUESTO SCENARIO DI MERCATO. AVENDO I TASSI BASSI E' LA VALUTA CHE CONVIENE PRENDERE A PRESTITO PER IL CARRY TRADE.
INFATTI..SE IL FRANCO SVIZZERO SI DOVESSE INDEBOLIRE...SAREBBE LA GIOIA DI TUTTI COLORO CHE SI SONO INDEBITATI IN FRANCHI SVIZZERI
SE I TASSI DI INTERESSE DOVESSERO ALZARSI LA VALUTA POTREBBE RAFFORZARSI..MA E' QUELLO CHE LA BANCA SVIZZERA NON VUOLE...INOLTRE L'IMMOBILIARE SVIZZERO CROLLEREBBE DOPO ANNI DI BOOM...
MERCATO LIBERO CONSIGLIA DI NON AVERE POSIZIONI IMPORTANTI SUL FRANCO SVIZZERO, PERCHE' LO STALLO DELLA MONETA POTREBBE NON DURARE A LUNGO. OBIETTIVO 1,30!ANZI SE POTETE INDEBITATEVI SOTTO 1,24.
(onde evitare commenti idioti....stare lontani dal franco svizzero non vuol dire non avere i risparmi in svizzera..ma questo credo che lo abbiate capito tutti)
I mercati emergenti sembrano risentire della crisi mondiale piu' di altri e le loro valute rimangono deboli.
ARTICOLO MOLTO INTERESSANTE SULLE ATTESE DEGLI SPECULATORI
Bank of America’s monthly survey of investors showed a dramatic rise in
confidence in August, with a net 72pc expecting growth to accelerate over
the next year. It is the highest in reading since 2009.
Almost everybody expects bond yields to rise as deflation fears evaporate,
with just 3pc still worried about the risk of an economic relapse. Managers
have slashed their bond allocation to a 28-month low.
The survey is watched by veterans as a "contrarian indicator",
tracking herd mentality at key moments. Michael Hartnett, the bank’s
investment strategist, advised clients to take the opposite trade and buy US
Treasury bonds.
The exuberant mood comes as margin debt on Wall Street hovers near $377bn,
just below its all-time high and well above peaks before the dotcom crash
and the Lehman crisis.
“Investors have rarely been more levered than today,” said Deutsche Bank,
warning that the spike in margin debt is a “red flag” and should be watched
closely.
The bank described this form of debt as “a tool used by stock speculators to borrow money from brokerages to buy more stock than they could otherwise afford on their own. If the stock rises, they end up making far more money. If the stock crashes, the opposite materialises. This kind of speculation is highly alarming.”
The bank warned that forced sales of stocks can set off panic and a rush for exits, snowballing into a crash, as happened in 1929. It said the equity rally may have further legs but it cited “astonishing similarities” between the latest patterns and events preceding prior market crises.
Andrew Lapthorne from Societe Generale said the rush for leverage is a classic sign of a credit cycle near exhaustion. “Profits have been ticking along at stall speed just as in 2006 and 2007, and just like then people are resorting to leverage to squeeze out the last dime,” he said.
Mr Lapthorne said the new twist is that US profits have begun to stall as well, with cash flow growth falling from double-digit rates to zero.
He said the rise in margin debt is matched by leveraged excess across the system, with debt-driven buy-backs of corporate shares running at a $400bn annual rate. Leveraged buy-outs are back in vogue. Junk bond yields are near record lows.
“When everybody is jumping up and down and partying, that is the time to worry. Once the market turns nasty we could see a negative feedback loop. Debt is always a killer in the end,” he said.
Investors are betting the US Federal Reserve is about to taper bond purchases for healthy reasons, because the US economy is strong enough to stand on its own feet.
The counter-view is that the Fed is tightening for “unhealthy” reasons, because it has taken to heart warnings from the Bank of International Settlements about the dangers of excess leverage and a fresh asset bubble.
“The Fed is really acting out of anxiety. They are trying to package this in cotton wool, telling us everything is alright, but we don’t think the US economy has reached escape velocity,” said Mr Lapthorne. Bank of America said there has been a dramatic divergence between “Main Street” and “Wall Street”. While the US economy has grown by $1.3 trillion since 2009, the US stock market has added $12 trillion.
The bank said nominal GDP growth over the past four quarters has been the slowest ever recorded outside a recession. This would not normally be circumstances when the Fed took away the punchbowl and tightened credit.
While the eurozone appears to have stabilised, this falls short of recovery and is too little to stop the debt trajectories of southern Europe rising further. The worry is that investors have already pocketed the gains of a cyclical expansion that does not yet exist. “While tail risk is diminished, it is not dead. Expect the unexpected,” said Bank of America.
The bank described this form of debt as “a tool used by stock speculators to borrow money from brokerages to buy more stock than they could otherwise afford on their own. If the stock rises, they end up making far more money. If the stock crashes, the opposite materialises. This kind of speculation is highly alarming.”
The bank warned that forced sales of stocks can set off panic and a rush for exits, snowballing into a crash, as happened in 1929. It said the equity rally may have further legs but it cited “astonishing similarities” between the latest patterns and events preceding prior market crises.
Andrew Lapthorne from Societe Generale said the rush for leverage is a classic sign of a credit cycle near exhaustion. “Profits have been ticking along at stall speed just as in 2006 and 2007, and just like then people are resorting to leverage to squeeze out the last dime,” he said.
Mr Lapthorne said the new twist is that US profits have begun to stall as well, with cash flow growth falling from double-digit rates to zero.
He said the rise in margin debt is matched by leveraged excess across the system, with debt-driven buy-backs of corporate shares running at a $400bn annual rate. Leveraged buy-outs are back in vogue. Junk bond yields are near record lows.
“When everybody is jumping up and down and partying, that is the time to worry. Once the market turns nasty we could see a negative feedback loop. Debt is always a killer in the end,” he said.
Investors are betting the US Federal Reserve is about to taper bond purchases for healthy reasons, because the US economy is strong enough to stand on its own feet.
The counter-view is that the Fed is tightening for “unhealthy” reasons, because it has taken to heart warnings from the Bank of International Settlements about the dangers of excess leverage and a fresh asset bubble.
“The Fed is really acting out of anxiety. They are trying to package this in cotton wool, telling us everything is alright, but we don’t think the US economy has reached escape velocity,” said Mr Lapthorne. Bank of America said there has been a dramatic divergence between “Main Street” and “Wall Street”. While the US economy has grown by $1.3 trillion since 2009, the US stock market has added $12 trillion.
The bank said nominal GDP growth over the past four quarters has been the slowest ever recorded outside a recession. This would not normally be circumstances when the Fed took away the punchbowl and tightened credit.
While the eurozone appears to have stabilised, this falls short of recovery and is too little to stop the debt trajectories of southern Europe rising further. The worry is that investors have already pocketed the gains of a cyclical expansion that does not yet exist. “While tail risk is diminished, it is not dead. Expect the unexpected,” said Bank of America.
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