L'ULTIMA SETTIMANA DI LUGLIO IN GIAPPONE INIZIA PROPRIO MALE
I mercati azionari si apprestano a vivere gli ultimi giorni di luglio...In italia, come sapete tutti abbiamo il risultato del processo a Berlusconi...e l'impatto sul governo e sullo spread in generale, ma sono tanti i dati mondiali che pesano..
Vi ricordo che il mercato americano si è salvato da trimestrali non certo belle...solo grazie a un dollaro debole che ha permesso di mantenere alte le attese per gli utili futuri (infatti dollaroO DEBOLE SIGNIFICA SIA QUANTITATIVE EASING CHE MAGGIORI ESPORTAZIONI PER GLI USA.)
L'europa vivacchia in attesa di agosto e delle elezioni tedesche....MA AD AGOSTO..QUEST'ANNO POTREBBERO ACCADERE COSE IMPORTANTI..
I mercati nelle ultime settimane stanno anticipando una crescita economica in Europa per l'autunno...LA STESSA CRESCITA DI CUI HA PARLATO IERI SACCOMANNI, che viene imboccato dagli amici della Goldman sachs di Draghi e company..INFATTI ANCHE QUESTA MATTINA SEMBRA CHE LE AZIONI EUROPEE NON SIANO COLPITE DALL'ANDAMENTO GIAPPONESE..
Nello stesso tempi mercati continuano a puntare su un rallentamento dell'economia in area cinese.
La scommessa sulla futura CRESCITA è fatta con l'euro forte (che potrebbe ammazzare la crescita stessa) e con le borse pimpanti...ma ad agosto le cose fanno presto a cambiare..visto che la liquidita' e' sui minimi...la volatilita' e la ricerca di stop loss la faranno da padroni..
IL MERCATO GIAPPONESE PERDE IN DUE GIORNI QUASI IL 6%...E RITORNA IL DUBBIO..ANCHE PERCHE' QUESTA VOLTA LA DISCESA AVVIENE POST ELEZIONI E FA VENIRE IL DUBBIO CHE L'ABENOMICS FACCIA ACQUA (eppure stanno facendo quello che i mostri sacri..della MMT appoggiati da blogs italiani..stanno dicendo da tempo..stampa di moneta a go go..)
Venerdi prossimo ci attende un importante dato sull'occupazione Usa, da quei numeri usciranno i prossimi movimenti della Fed.
Altro dato importante saranno le nuove case ... per vedere l'impatto dei tasi di interesse decisamente piu' alti sul settore edilizio ...che fino ad oggi è stato trainante..Stessa cosa per le vendite di auto a Luglio, dato atteso questa settimana.
E poi non dimentichiamoci che ben tre banche centrali terranno una riunione sui tassi di interesse..
Senza contare il dato PMI che verra' rilasciato da tutte le maggiori economie mondiali e molti avranno le risposte a due domande fondamentali: l'europa sta migliorando? la cina sta continuando a peggiorare?
Una delle notizie piu' divertenti della settimana sara' LA REVISIONE DEL PIL AMERICANO A PARTIRE DAL 1929 per includere la voce ricerca e sviluppo nel calcolo del PIL.
OVVIAMENTE CI TROVIAMO DAVANTI ALL'ENNESIMO DATO INTANGINBILE E QUINDI OPINABILE CHE I CONTABILI HANNO INSERITO PER POTER NASCONDERE LE MAGAGNE USA...(QUANDO I DATI SONO BRUTTI...BASTA METTERE UN PO' DI VALORE CON LA RICERCA E SVILUPPO..SALVO POI...QUANDO LE PERDITE SARANO INSOPPORTABILI..FAR SALTARE LA BARACCA ...MA QUESTO AVVERRA' SOLO DOPO..DOPO...TRANQUILLI).
Il dato sulla ricerca e sviluppo è importante perche' fara' cambiare il dato sulla CRESCITA DEL PIL..e il secondo trimestre del 2013 potremmo avere crescita enorme e senza che le cose cambino
Economic Calendar
- Pending Home Sales (Monday): Economists estimate that the pace of pending home sales fell 1.0% in June month-over-month. "Pending home sales should have decreased by 2.0% mom in June," warned Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Michelle Meyer. "We expect some of the decline in signed contracts for existing homes to be a give-back following a 6.7% surge in May. We could also start to see the impact of rising mortgage rates, which may have deterred some homebuyers, particularly investors and second home buyers."
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday): Economists estimate this index climbed to 7.3 in July, up from 6.5 a month ago.
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (Tuesday): Economists estimate the 20-city index climbed 1.4% month-over-month in May and 12.4% year-over-year. "Figures released by data provider CoreLogic suggest that home selling prices remained on an uptrend during May in the twenty cities covered by the S&P/Case- Shiller survey," said Societe Generale's Brian Jones. "We will be paying particular attention to the breadth of price gains in next week’s report. Since last December, all of the metropolitan areas surveyed have posted sequential increases in home selling prices."
- Consumer Confidence (Tuesday): Economists estimate that this confidence index fell to 81.0 in July from 81.4 a month ago. "Boosting confidence should be good news on employment. The June employment report, released during the survey period, surprised to the upside," said Credit Suisse's Neal Soss. "Also, “News Heard on Employment” from the University of Michigan’s consumer survey improved in July."
- ADP Employment Change (Wednesday): Economists estimate the ADP survey will show a 180,000 increase in private payrolls in July. "ADP private payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in July, a partial give- back from the pop up to 188,000 in June," said BAML's Ethan Harris who is a bit more cautious than the consensus. "This would bring private payrolls roughly in line with the 6-month moving average of 163,000."
- GDP Q2 (Wednesday): Having said that, economists estimate that GDP grew at a meager 1.0% rate in Q2. Personal consumption is estimated to have climbed by 1.6%. "2Q13 GDP is expected to be a very low +0.3%, leaving first half growth at only slightly better than 1% annualized, as the economy absorbed the heaviest impact of an estimated 1.7%% of GDP fiscal tightening this year," warned Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman who is much more bearish than the consensus.
- Chicago PMI (Wednesday): Economists are looking for a reading of 54.0 in July, up from 51.6 in June. "Regarding the July Chicago PMI, we expect the manufacturing sector to regain some momentum in the back half of the year after suffering from a combination of sequester-related weakness, slowing exports and inventory rebalancing in H1," said Deutsche Bank's Brett Ryan.
- The FOMC Rate Decision (Wednesday): "[This] week's FOMC meeting should prove to be relatively uneventful, with potentially the most interesting aspect being the degree to which they signal the imminence of the first tapering," said JP Morgan's Feroli. "We think that this first tapering comes at the September meeting, and see very low odds of a surprise reduction in asset purchases next week. Even uber-hawk Charles Plosser has called a first move in September, and if he doesn't advocate a July move, it's hard to see anyone in the leadership doing so."
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday): Economists estimate that claims ticked up to 344,000 from 343,000 a week ago.
- Markit PMI (Thursday): Economists are looking for a reading of 53.2 in July.
- ISM Manufacturing (Thursday): Economists estimate that this key measure climbed to 52.0 in July, up from 50.9 in June. "For July, we expect the ISM Manufacturing Index to increase slightly to 52.6," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia. "The regional indices released for July so far have indicated that manufacturing improved this month. Although this is an improvement over last month’s figure, our forecast remains consistent with this recovery’s theme of modest, subpar growth and little evidence of the acceleration experienced in previous recoveries."
- Construction Spending (Thursday): Economists estimate that spending climbed by 0.4% in June. "We look for a slowdown in the rate of increase of residential construction spending, reflecting the softening in housing starts of the past few months," said BAML's Meyer. "This should be offset by a gain in renovation spending. "
- Vehicle Sales (Thursday): Analysts estimate that vehicle sales slipped to a still robust 15.8 million in July. "[V]ehicle sales have meaningful upside potential, thereby providing another pillar of support to the manufacturing sector in H2 and into 2014," said Deutsche Bank's Ryan.
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): Economists estimate that the U.S. added 185,000 payrolls in July, up from 195,000 in June. They also expect the unemployment rate to slip to 7.5% from 7.6% in June. "The public sector is likely to continue to gradually shed jobs; we forecast a decline of 5,000 public sector workers," said BAML's Harris. "In contrast, the private sector should add 185,000 jobs. Job growth recently has been driven by leisure and hospitality as well as retail trade — two of the sectors with the lowest paying jobs and fewest working hours. This has sparked concern about a poor composition of job growth. "
- Personal Income and Spending (Friday): Economists estimate that income climbed by 0.4% in June, while spending grew by 0.5%. "Personal Income is expected to see a solid +0.5% gain in June given strong growth in aggregate private sector wages and salaries reported in the June employment situation," said Morgan Stanley's Wieseman. "Personal Consumption is also expected to gain a solid +0.5%, supported by a surge in motor vehicle sales to a six-year high, upside in gasoline consumption reflecting both higher prices and volume, and a slight uptick in ex auto retail sales."
- Factory Orders (Friday): Economists estimate that orders climbed by 2.3% in June.
NIKKEI 225 (^N225) 13.661,13 
468,85(-3,32%)
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