FONDI HENDERSON: PREPARARSI ALLE TENEBRE DELLA SECONDA META' DELL'ANNO !
-Il progetto MERCATO LIBERO VILLAGE 2 A Porto Seguro va avanti e spedito. I primi appartamenti sono stati prenotati. 1000 euro al metro quadro per 52 metri quadri con il prezzo bloccato in reais ! da non perdere l'occasione del gruppo di acquisto (I PRIMI 15). MERCATILIBERI@GMAIL.COM
-CLINICA DENTALE A LUGANO incontro il 3 aprile ore 10.00 a Lugano. Una presentazione sui vantaggi e i costi dell'apertura di uno studio da parte di un gruppo di dentisti lettori di ML. (ancora pochi posti per partecipare. MERCATILIBERI@GMAIL.COM
-BERLINO: 30 e 31 MARZO BLITZ nella capitale d'europa per acquistare una palazzina in gruppo. Riusciamo ad acquistare con un forte sconto grazie al gruppo di acquisto che poi si divide gli appartamenti. ottima prospettiva di rendita. Chi vuole aggregarsi all'investimento...OPERAZIONEVALKIRIA@GMAIL.COM
-GITA A LUGANO (delocalizzazione risparmi, finanziamenti a tassi bassissimi (1,80%) , controgarantiti da titoli, pensioni in franchi svizzeri, centro uffici, progetto promotori ecc ecc) GIOVEDI' 15 MARZO. per prenotazioni: MERCATILIBERI@GMAIL.COM
ANCHE I NOSTRI ARTICOLI MERITANO UNA LETTURA
I NOSTRI PROGETTI PER FUGGIRE DA QUESTO SCHIFO D'ITALIA
CACCIATE MONTI ENTRO 30 GIORNI
ITALIA DISTRUTTA ANALISI PERFETTA DI GAOLIN - ARTICOLO DA BLOGTECA
PERCHE' DICO NO AD ICEBERGFINANZA ART. N,2
PERCHE' DICO NO AD ICEBERGFINANZA ART. 1
e ora un piccolo stralcio di quanto scrive Simon Ward di Henderson Global Investors.
He shows that M1 money supply growth in the big G7 economies and leading E7 emerging powers buckled over the winter. La caduta della velocità di circolazione della moneta è un dato preoccupante:
The gauge - known as six-month real narrow money - peaked at 5.1pc in November. It dropped to 3.6pc in January, and to 2.1pc in February.This is comparable to falls seen in mid-2008 in the months leading up to the Great Recession, and which caught central banks so badly off guard.“The speed of the drop-off is worrying. This acts with a six months lag time so we can expect global growth to peak in May. There may be a sharp slowdown in the second half,” said Mr Ward.
If so, this may come as a nasty surprise to equity markets betting that America has reached “escape velocity” at long last, that Europe will scrape by with nothing worse than a light recession, and that China is safely rebounding after touching bottom over of the winter. Stocks usually turn about two months before the real economy peaks, but not always.
Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Partners said the world economy is weaker than it looks, with monetary stimulus losing traction in the West just as China, India, Brazil, et al, hit the buffers, constrained by inflation and their own credit woes. “The risk here is that the credit cycles in emerging markets mature and start to deflate just as developed markets struggle with their own deleveraging process. We think 2012 will be a tough year for risk assets,” he said.
Meanwhile velocity has plunged, with the M2 gauge dropping below 1.6 last week for the first time since records began in 1959 (as shown in the chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis below).
Nick Bullman from the consultancy CheckRisks said that should give pause for thought. “It’s terrifying that markets are rising given what’s going on in the real world,” he said.
So the Fed is hunkering down even though Mr Bernanke himself warns that the US faces a “massive fiscal cliff” later this year as automatic tax increases come into force.
Across the Atlantic, a German temper tantrum has made almost it impossible for Mario Draghi to deliver any more magic at the European Central Bank. His €1 trillion (£837bn) blast of liquidity for banks under the 'LTRO' scheme - actually just €530bn in fresh money - has averted a collapse of the Latin banking systems and bought another lease of life for monetary union.
However, banks parked €827bn back at the ECB for safe-keeping last week. They are still slashing their balance sheets to meet the EU’s ill-timed demand for 9pc core Tier I capital ratios by June. What the Draghi Bazooka has done is to slow the pace of deleveraging, not stop it. This comes at a cost of big distortions to the credit system and structural subordination of private creditors.
The ECB’s January data showed that real M1 deposits were still collapsing at frightening rates across Europe’s arc of depression, with six-month falls of 12.9pc in Greece, 9.2pc in Ireland, 9pc in Portugal, 8pc in Italy. And remember, this is a leading indicator. Italy is already in a slump. Its industrial output has fallen 5pc over the last year. It faces a further fiscal squeeze of 3.5pc of GDP this year in the middle of a deep recession. Buona fortuna.
France’s Nicolas Sarkozy was quick to declare Europe’s debt crisis “solved” after the Greek deal. Such claims are jejune. He ignores the cancer eating EMU: the 1930s Gold Standard mechanism that imposes all the burden of adjustment on the weaker economies, trapping Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland in debt deflation, and trapping his own country in structural decline.
Europe’s policy-makers are implicitly relying on a fresh cycle of global growth to do their work for them, and lift Club Med off the reefs. If recovery flags again, the strains will become intolerable. With Spain’s youth unemployment already hitting 51.2pc, how much more will it take before the political fuse detonates?
1 commento:
hanno segnalato i finanzieri in borghese ai mercatini rionali perchè invece non vanno direttamente da monti e dai suoi amici banchieri :avrebbero sicuramente 1 anno di lavoro assicurato
Posta un commento