MERCATO LIBERO

ATTENTI A QUESTO GRAFICO.....MOSTRA I SOLDI PARCHEGGIATI PRESSO LA FED DA PARTE DI ISTITUZIONI STRANIERE (BANCHE EUROPEE..A CUI PIACCIONO I DOLLARI E SONO PREOCCUPATE PER IL DESTINO DELL'EURO...)




QUESTO E' IL MIGLIOR ARTICOLO DELLA SETTIMANA: E' DI JOHN HUSSMAN GESTORE DI UN IMPORTANTE FONDO USA E CHE HA SEMPRE DIMOSTRATO UNA GRANDE LUCIDITA' DI ANALISI MA QUESTO ARTICOLO E' A DIR POCO ILLUMINANTE.
UNA GRANDE CRISI E' IMMINENTE. CHI VERRA' SALVATO?

La politica difendera' i detentori del debito pubblico (e bancario) o gli interessi dei cittadini?
Per l'economia e le sorti del mercato è importante che si faccia una scelta (EQUILIBRIO DI NASH). ALLO STATO ATTUALE I MERCATI SCONTANO L'INCERTEZZA DELLA "NON" DECISIONE CHE POTREBBE ALIMENTARE DISASTRI ANCOR PIU' AMPI.

E ANCHE QUESTA PARTE DI ARTICOLO DI MAULDIN DA IMPORTANTI SUGGERIMENTI SUL DA FARSI

“Markets usually do a pretty good job of coping with problems one at a time. When one arises, analysts analyze and investors reach conclusions and calmly adjust their portfolios. But when there’s a confluence of negative events, the markets can become overwhelmed and lose their cool. Things that might be tolerable individually combine into an unfathomable mess whose extent and ramifications seem beyond analysis. Market crises are chaotic, not orderly, and the multiplicity and simultaneity of contributing causes play a big part in making them so.”

I did an interview with good friends David Galland and Doug Casey of Casey Research yesterday. They are decidedly more bearish than I am, so wanted an “optimist” to sit on their panel. But they forced me to admit that some of my optimism depends on the probability of US political leaders doing the right thing. Depending on your opinion about that, you are more or less prone to think there is a crisis in our future. And while I like to think it is not me showing a home-town bias, I think Europe has worse problems and a tougher situation than the US. A crisis there is more likely, I think.

But whether you want to make it 50-50 to 70-30 or (pick a number), there is a reasonable prospect of another credit crisis. So what should you do?

First, think back to 2008. Were you liquid enough? Did you have enough cash? If not, then think about raising that cash now. When the crisis hits, you have to sell what you can for what you can get, not what you want for reasonable prices.

I am personally raising more cash in my business. I usually invest money as soon as I can. Now, I am still investing, and you too should still put money to work in places that you think have the potential to do well in a crisis. Go back and see what worked in 2008 and buy more of it! Long-only funds did not work. Those that were more nimble did.

In the next crisis, opportunities to buy assets on the cheap will grow, so having some cash will make it easier to buy things you want to own for the next 10-20 years, whether income-producing or just something you want for fun.

Think through your portfolio. In 2008 I watched investors liquidate solid funds, or sell off assets at fire-sale prices, because that was the only way they could raise cash, when that was the time to invest more, not redeem. Make sure you are the “strong hand.”

Understand, I am not saying sell your conviction stocks. I have some and am buying more. But no index funds, no long-only, unhedged funds. I make very specific choices when it comes to long-only investments that I am looking to hold over and beyond a ten-year horizon. And those are risks I want to take (at least today).

I do not want to own anything that looks like an index fund or long-only mutual fund. Think 2008. I want funds and managers that have an edge and have a hedge, preferably both.

I would not be long money-center bank stocks or bonds, not in the US and especially not in Europe. I have had private off-the-record conversations with Republican leaders. There is simply no willingness to do another TARP-like bailout of bondholders and shareholders. I believe them.

(Caveat: I do think even the GOP leaders will have to cave in and allow the government to be “debtor-in-possession” of the too-big-to-fail banks we allowed to exist under the really bad financial bill called Dodd-Frank, which needs to be repealed and replaced. We have to preserve the system, but not shareholders and bondholders, who will lose this time.)

If you plan correctly, the next crisis will be an opportunity for you and not a personal crisis. And you will be better able to help those who need it.


LA PROSSIMA CRISI SARA' FINALMENTE UNA GRANDE OPPORTUNITA' E TU DOVRAI ESSERE IN GRADO DI APPROFITTARNE.....

MERCATO LIBERO NE E' CONVINTO E CON NOI TUTTI I NOSTRI CARI AMICI E LETTORI...MA PER POTER SFRUTTARE LA PIU' GRANDE OPPORTUNITA DEL SECOLO...SI DEVONO PRESERVARE GLI ATTUALI RISPARMI PER I PROSSIMI 6 -18 MESI!

LA CRISI E' APPENA INIZIATA E DURERA' 6 -18 MESI (fra alti e bassi) CON VINTI E VINCITORI. DA CHE PARTE VUOI ESSERE ?