I MERCATI NON POSSONO SOLO SCENDERE..MA PER ORA LE NOTIZIE NON FANNO SPERARE IN UN CAMBIAMENTO DEL SENTIMENT MA SOLO DI RIMBALZI.
SOLO PER DARVI UN A IDEA DI QUELLO CHE SI DICE DELL'ITALIA IN GIRO...PER IL MONDO...
ATTENTI AI FALSI RIMBALZI....
The big news today is that the ECB will buy Spanish and Italian bonds. Italy is also announcing a balanced budget amendment. The comedy of errors continues. We’ve seen these movies before and we know exactly how they end. Italian austerity will not fix this problem. As we saw in Greece, austerity will only exacerbate their issues by shrinking the economy while ignoring the problem of aggregate debt levels. A balanced budget amendment is not what Italy needs right now. It’s in many ways, no different than the situation the USA is in. As a current account deficit nation, the balanced budget amendment will shrink the public sector while the private sector and foreign sector both act as drags on the economy. This means the Italian economy will shrink which will ultimately make their problems worse in the near-term
a Manovra del governo è stata anticipata di un anno. Non è un gran che....ma la cosa piu' importante è che la BCE compri obbligazioni ITALIANE...
Tuttavia il debito di italia e spagna è imponente e la speculazione potrebbe affondare ancora il coltello. (i soldi potrebbero mancare)
Ma si dovrà verificare se ci sarà o meno un indebolimento globale dell'economia GLOBALE
In Italia il PIL vecchio (secondo trimestre) è in salita +0,3% (ma è una stima e potrebbe essere rivisto al ribasso). Inoltre il peggio sta capitando a luglio e il Pil del terzo trimestre rischia di essere nagativo.
TORNO A RIPETERE CHE NON SI RISCHIA DI SALTARE AD AGOSTO...QUESTA E' SOLO UNA PROVA DI RECESSIONE .....SE LE COSE SI METTERANNO MALE LO SCOPRIREMO SOLO FRA SETTEMBRE E OTTOBRE.
350-400 basis point di spread fra il debito tedesco e quello italiano...CAPITE COSA VUOL DIRE..??? VUOL DIRE CHE ALL'ITALIA FINANZIARE IL DEBITO COSTA DECINE DI MILIARDI DI PIU' CHE IN GERMANIA E CHE SIAMO IN UN VICOLO CIECO!
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QUESTO FINE SETTIMANA I MERCATI SONO PIU' RILASSATI SULLA SPERANZA CHE LA GERMANIA METTA SUL PIATTO UN QUANTITATIVO DI DENARO PER TAPPARE I BUCHI ...MA SARANNO VERAMENTE DISPOSTI...
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Piu' il dollaro sarà debole e piu' la nostra economia andrà male, in quanto le esportazioni si contrarranno o i margini di profitto si abbasseranno.
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I Mercati potrebbero continuare a scendere per colpa di un continuo rallentamento mondiale. MA ATTENZIONE AL QE3 (anche se ritengo che verrà annunciato solo quando il Dow sarà significativamente piu' basso (10.500?)
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SETTIMANA PROSSIMA SI DICE CHE MOODYS SIA QUASI PRONTA PER DOWNGRADARE L'ITALIA
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attenzione a questa importante nota sull'ITALIA.
Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said - suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
Italy's public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
A one percentage point increase in Italy's debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy's five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks' bond issues
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks' holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets - a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks' 10%
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14 ECONOMISTI HANNO PREDETTO CHE L'INDICE S&P SALIRA' DEL 17% ENTRO FINE ANNO.
CACCHOLINA..LO SAPETE CHE LA STESSA NOTIZIA ARRIVO' NEI PRIMI MESI DEL 2008 AHAHHAAH
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IN USA SONO INSISTENTI LE VOCI DI UN DOWNRATIG DELL'ECONOMIA AMERICANA...SAREBBE UN'ALTRA BELLA BOTTA!
ATTENTI AI FALSI RIMBALZI....
The big news today is that the ECB will buy Spanish and Italian bonds. Italy is also announcing a balanced budget amendment. The comedy of errors continues. We’ve seen these movies before and we know exactly how they end. Italian austerity will not fix this problem. As we saw in Greece, austerity will only exacerbate their issues by shrinking the economy while ignoring the problem of aggregate debt levels. A balanced budget amendment is not what Italy needs right now. It’s in many ways, no different than the situation the USA is in. As a current account deficit nation, the balanced budget amendment will shrink the public sector while the private sector and foreign sector both act as drags on the economy. This means the Italian economy will shrink which will ultimately make their problems worse in the near-term
a Manovra del governo è stata anticipata di un anno. Non è un gran che....ma la cosa piu' importante è che la BCE compri obbligazioni ITALIANE...
Tuttavia il debito di italia e spagna è imponente e la speculazione potrebbe affondare ancora il coltello. (i soldi potrebbero mancare)
Ma si dovrà verificare se ci sarà o meno un indebolimento globale dell'economia GLOBALE
In Italia il PIL vecchio (secondo trimestre) è in salita +0,3% (ma è una stima e potrebbe essere rivisto al ribasso). Inoltre il peggio sta capitando a luglio e il Pil del terzo trimestre rischia di essere nagativo.
TORNO A RIPETERE CHE NON SI RISCHIA DI SALTARE AD AGOSTO...QUESTA E' SOLO UNA PROVA DI RECESSIONE .....SE LE COSE SI METTERANNO MALE LO SCOPRIREMO SOLO FRA SETTEMBRE E OTTOBRE.
350-400 basis point di spread fra il debito tedesco e quello italiano...CAPITE COSA VUOL DIRE..??? VUOL DIRE CHE ALL'ITALIA FINANZIARE IL DEBITO COSTA DECINE DI MILIARDI DI PIU' CHE IN GERMANIA E CHE SIAMO IN UN VICOLO CIECO!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QUESTO FINE SETTIMANA I MERCATI SONO PIU' RILASSATI SULLA SPERANZA CHE LA GERMANIA METTA SUL PIATTO UN QUANTITATIVO DI DENARO PER TAPPARE I BUCHI ...MA SARANNO VERAMENTE DISPOSTI...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Piu' il dollaro sarà debole e piu' la nostra economia andrà male, in quanto le esportazioni si contrarranno o i margini di profitto si abbasseranno.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I Mercati potrebbero continuare a scendere per colpa di un continuo rallentamento mondiale. MA ATTENZIONE AL QE3 (anche se ritengo che verrà annunciato solo quando il Dow sarà significativamente piu' basso (10.500?)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SETTIMANA PROSSIMA SI DICE CHE MOODYS SIA QUASI PRONTA PER DOWNGRADARE L'ITALIA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
attenzione a questa importante nota sull'ITALIA.
Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said - suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
Italy's public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
A one percentage point increase in Italy's debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy's five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks' bond issues
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks' holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets - a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks' 10%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 ECONOMISTI HANNO PREDETTO CHE L'INDICE S&P SALIRA' DEL 17% ENTRO FINE ANNO.
CACCHOLINA..LO SAPETE CHE LA STESSA NOTIZIA ARRIVO' NEI PRIMI MESI DEL 2008 AHAHHAAH
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IN USA SONO INSISTENTI LE VOCI DI UN DOWNRATIG DELL'ECONOMIA AMERICANA...SAREBBE UN'ALTRA BELLA BOTTA!
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