UNICREDIT - PER INTESA SAN PAOLO IL TARGET E' 2,18
I DATI VERRANNO RESI NOTI PRIMA DELL'APERTURA DEI MERCATI
We expect the company to report a net income of EUR 138M in 4Q10E, below the
market consensus (EUR 215M). The bottom line is expected to be largely impacted by one-off items (reorganisation costs and impairments, partially offset by fiscal benefits), making the bottom line not particularly meaningful.
At operating level we expect a 2.8% yoy decline, mainly driven by lower trading income. We expect a cost of risk of 121bps in 4Q10E and 122bps in FY10E, down from 147bps in FY09, thanks to the decline in CEE and partially in CIB, while we expect a slight increase in retail.
We expect a dividend of EUR 0.03/share.
ƒ Focus. We expect the focus to be on NII and capital. We forecast NII to increase by 1.8% qoq, thanks to the contribution of CEE. We expect a Dec 2010E core Tier1 of 8.6%, and an estimated negative impact of Basel 3 new rules of about 140bps (on 2013E).
ƒ Key risks. Risks to our valuation are linked to a deterioration/improvement in the macroeconomic scenario in Western Europe and CEE, FX changes in CEE countries, possible write-downs/write-ups on the financial asset portfolio, regulatory changes, and potential fiscal and legal charges
We expect the company to report a net income of EUR 138M in 4Q10E, below the
market consensus (EUR 215M). The bottom line is expected to be largely impacted by one-off items (reorganisation costs and impairments, partially offset by fiscal benefits), making the bottom line not particularly meaningful.
At operating level we expect a 2.8% yoy decline, mainly driven by lower trading income. We expect a cost of risk of 121bps in 4Q10E and 122bps in FY10E, down from 147bps in FY09, thanks to the decline in CEE and partially in CIB, while we expect a slight increase in retail.
We expect a dividend of EUR 0.03/share.
ƒ Focus. We expect the focus to be on NII and capital. We forecast NII to increase by 1.8% qoq, thanks to the contribution of CEE. We expect a Dec 2010E core Tier1 of 8.6%, and an estimated negative impact of Basel 3 new rules of about 140bps (on 2013E).
ƒ Key risks. Risks to our valuation are linked to a deterioration/improvement in the macroeconomic scenario in Western Europe and CEE, FX changes in CEE countries, possible write-downs/write-ups on the financial asset portfolio, regulatory changes, and potential fiscal and legal charges
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