LA POLITICA DELLA FED E' LA RAGIONE DEGLI SCONTRI IN TUNISIA ED EGITTO (E SIAMO SOLO ALL'INIZIO)
Ieri il FOMC ha confermato che il livello di inflazione negli USA è basso se si considerano le politiche monetarie messe in atto.
Quindi la FED continuerà nel lungo termine a operare in un ambiente dominato da:
1) ZIRP (politica di tassi a zero)
2) QE2 (stamapre moneta)
IN paesi con relativi alti standard di vita (Europa, Giappone, USA) e un mercato immobiliare deflattivo (con prezzi in discesa), costo della manodopera fermo e dove è in atto un delevereging QUESTA SITUAZIONE STA PORTANDO SOLO DEL "DISAGIO" ma nessun dramma da parte di una popolazione che ha ancora dei risparmi dai quali puo' attingere.
TUTTAVIA NEI PAESI CON UN BASSO TENORE DI VITA IL POPOLO E' MOLTO PIU' ESPOSTO ALLA SALITA DEI PREZZI DELL'ENERGIA E DEL CIBO.
IN USA:
The US employment picture is brightening, and housing activity, if not home prices quite yet, are in the process of forming a bottom. But levels of employment and inflation remain low based on the metrics the Fed watches, the presidential cycle is about to kick into gear, and political necessities demand some level of fiscal austerity. As a result, don't look for the Fed to take its foot off the gas, let alone put it on the brakes, any time soon.
CINA:
At the same time, China is skittishly trying to maintain 8-10% growth without letting inflation getting out of hand and while transitioning its growth model from export/infrastructure-based to consumption-based. Improving demand from a reaccelerating US along with a torrent of QE-manufactured dollars only complicates matters. Can China tame inflation without crushing growth? And if not, what will they decide to do?
TUNISIA, EGITTO ECC ECC..
Caught in the middle are countries like Tunisia and Egypt, and perhaps others in North Africa and the Middle East. They've caught the revolution bug after decades of autocratic rule, persistently high unemployment, and now inflation, and increasingly, a population of tech-savvy youths who are fed up with their living conditions and are using social networks to organize rallies and riots. This has become one of Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns." What will the chain of events be if this spreads further, possibly threatening oil supplies and prices in the Middle East? How would the US weigh its desire for regime and energy stability against its desire for the spread of democracy? Does it even have the political will to fund a military response when its populace is clamoring for budget restraint? Would a surge in oil prices lead to a similar surge in food prices, with MENA handing off the geopolitical hot potato to food price-sensitive Asia?
And let us not forget our friends in Portugal and Spain, whose bond yields sit perilously close to 1-800-GOT-EFSF levels.
ATTENZIONE:
We know that in the post-2008 world, economics, politics, and monetary policy are intimately intertwined. One misstep -- whether it be a failed bond auction in Spain, a rate hike in China, or the failure to lift the debt ceiling in the US -- would have unknown consequences for all asset markets. It's becoming increasingly more difficult.
Quindi la FED continuerà nel lungo termine a operare in un ambiente dominato da:
1) ZIRP (politica di tassi a zero)
2) QE2 (stamapre moneta)
IN paesi con relativi alti standard di vita (Europa, Giappone, USA) e un mercato immobiliare deflattivo (con prezzi in discesa), costo della manodopera fermo e dove è in atto un delevereging QUESTA SITUAZIONE STA PORTANDO SOLO DEL "DISAGIO" ma nessun dramma da parte di una popolazione che ha ancora dei risparmi dai quali puo' attingere.
TUTTAVIA NEI PAESI CON UN BASSO TENORE DI VITA IL POPOLO E' MOLTO PIU' ESPOSTO ALLA SALITA DEI PREZZI DELL'ENERGIA E DEL CIBO.
IN USA:
The US employment picture is brightening, and housing activity, if not home prices quite yet, are in the process of forming a bottom. But levels of employment and inflation remain low based on the metrics the Fed watches, the presidential cycle is about to kick into gear, and political necessities demand some level of fiscal austerity. As a result, don't look for the Fed to take its foot off the gas, let alone put it on the brakes, any time soon.
CINA:
At the same time, China is skittishly trying to maintain 8-10% growth without letting inflation getting out of hand and while transitioning its growth model from export/infrastructure-based to consumption-based. Improving demand from a reaccelerating US along with a torrent of QE-manufactured dollars only complicates matters. Can China tame inflation without crushing growth? And if not, what will they decide to do?
TUNISIA, EGITTO ECC ECC..
Caught in the middle are countries like Tunisia and Egypt, and perhaps others in North Africa and the Middle East. They've caught the revolution bug after decades of autocratic rule, persistently high unemployment, and now inflation, and increasingly, a population of tech-savvy youths who are fed up with their living conditions and are using social networks to organize rallies and riots. This has become one of Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns." What will the chain of events be if this spreads further, possibly threatening oil supplies and prices in the Middle East? How would the US weigh its desire for regime and energy stability against its desire for the spread of democracy? Does it even have the political will to fund a military response when its populace is clamoring for budget restraint? Would a surge in oil prices lead to a similar surge in food prices, with MENA handing off the geopolitical hot potato to food price-sensitive Asia?
And let us not forget our friends in Portugal and Spain, whose bond yields sit perilously close to 1-800-GOT-EFSF levels.
ATTENZIONE:
We know that in the post-2008 world, economics, politics, and monetary policy are intimately intertwined. One misstep -- whether it be a failed bond auction in Spain, a rate hike in China, or the failure to lift the debt ceiling in the US -- would have unknown consequences for all asset markets. It's becoming increasingly more difficult.
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1 commento:
Un passo falso, spettacolo!
Ho l'impressione che le borse vogliano disperatamente correggere e che perfino la FED sarebbe contenta di vedere un pò di SANO ribasso che potrebbe fare da catapulta ai prossimi rialzi
invece i tori si sono imbizzariti, sono scappati dalla stalla e stanno trascinando gli indici verso la più grande bolla speculativa (cioè: prezzi irragionevoli) che si sia mai vista
chi compra a questi livelli ha un gran coraggio!
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