6300 DOLLARI PER UNA ONCIA D'ORO?
Ecco alcuni stralci di un interessante articolo
Se l'oro dovesse uguagliare la base monetaria espressa in dollari raggiungerebbe i 6300 $
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: November 19th, 2009
The last parabolic spike in gold took off when central banks joined the fray in the 1970s, hoarding bullion with the same enthusiasm as gold bugs. Dylan Grice from Société Générale says it smells much the same today.
He sees an eery similarity between the decision of India’s central bank to buy half the IMF’s entire sale of gold, and the move by France’s central bank to start converting dollars into gold in 1965 — which was, of course, the start of the slippery slope leading to the collapse of Bretton Woods and the closure of the US gold window under Nixon.
In the gold mania that followed, the price rose to levels that matched the US dollar monetary base (it reached 140pc at the peak). If that were to occur today after Ben Bernanke’s go at the printing press, gold would have to reach $6,300 an ounce.
The US owns 263m ounces of gold while the Fed’s monetary base is $1.7 trillion. Simple equation.
Almost all western governments are insolvent. The total net liabilities of the US and France are both over 500pc of GDP. The UK and Germany are over 400pc.
We are bust. To make matters worse central bank credibility has been “permanently ruptured” by their collective failure to see the 2008 crash coming. (He is too polite: they caused the crisis by holding real rates too low for a decade, creating a debt bubble).
Given that central bankers have been exposed as mortals/charlatans (ie pretending to command an exact science, when economics is merely a descriptive branch of anthropology), who can have much faith that they will manage the exit from emergency stimulus with skill?
Markets fear that central bankers will try to satisfy political masters by inflating away our debt. (Here too, I have my doubts: my concern is that they do not yet understand the deflationary dynamic underway, and will stay too tight, for too long, until we are in the Japanese abyss. Look at the 7pc annualized contraction of the M3 money supply {not the same thing as the monetary base, at all} in the US over the last three months, which Bernanke refuses to look at because he regards M3 as a barbarous Friedmanite relic.)
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3 commenti:
E adesso (cioè dal 2001 per i bene informati) che il Sudafrica primo produttore mondiale da sempre sta finendo le riserve, come la mettiamo???
http://www.dani2989.com/gold/goldprod0509gb.htm
Il Folletto
non credete a questi guru.
perche????
se l'oro superERà i 2000 usd l'oncia vuol dire che le Banche Centrali sono Fallite.
VOI CI CREDETE???
dico di più se l'oro facesse un altro 10 % in più, oltre 1300 usd/oz. le Banche Centrali assieme ai loro dipendenti : i vari Governi Statali interverranno per confiscarlo ai privati Cittadini.
scomettiamo che accadrà così??
io, penso che una tassa specifica sull'oro e argento, assieme a maggiori margini sui relativi futures sia sufficiente..senza ricorrere alla confisca.
giobbe 1971
NESSUNO HA SENTITO PARLARE DEL "PICCO" NELLA PRODUZIONE DELL'ORO? ALTRO CHE PETROLIO.
INOLTRE
PERCHE' HANNO APERTO E STANNO APRENDO TUTTI QUESTI NEGOZI "COMPRO E VENDO ORO?"
GRAZIE.
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