DOUBLE DIP RISK? PER FELDSTEIN SI!
La fine dell'anno vedra' le aziende ricapitalizzate, le scorte aumentate e la fine del pacchetto di stimoli della FED e di Obama.
Ma i consumi?
Il rischio di vedere ripiombare l'economia in una recessione profonda per Feldstein e' alto.
From Bloomberg: Harvard’s Feldstein Sees Risk of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession in U.S.
... “There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news,” [Martin] Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We could slide down again in the fourth quarter.”
The economy could “flatten out” or “even be positive” in the third quarter, and then it’s likely to contract again in the last three months of the year as the effects of the federal stimulus program wear off and companies finish rebuilding inventories, he said.
“There isn’t going to be enough to sustain a really solid recovery,” he said, even though recent data has provided some “good news” on the economy.
This was the key point of the Texas Instruments post yesterday (with conference call comments on inventory). There is a possibility of short term growth as companies rebuild inventories, but then an extended period of sluggishness since end demand is flat.
Ma i consumi?
Il rischio di vedere ripiombare l'economia in una recessione profonda per Feldstein e' alto.
From Bloomberg: Harvard’s Feldstein Sees Risk of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession in U.S.
... “There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news,” [Martin] Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We could slide down again in the fourth quarter.”
The economy could “flatten out” or “even be positive” in the third quarter, and then it’s likely to contract again in the last three months of the year as the effects of the federal stimulus program wear off and companies finish rebuilding inventories, he said.
“There isn’t going to be enough to sustain a really solid recovery,” he said, even though recent data has provided some “good news” on the economy.
This was the key point of the Texas Instruments post yesterday (with conference call comments on inventory). There is a possibility of short term growth as companies rebuild inventories, but then an extended period of sluggishness since end demand is flat.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
3 commenti:
Paolo, ma tu cosa ne pensi? Per te ha ragione Michele che vede il Dow Jones a 14000 entro il suo mandato o la visione pessimista ti porta a vedere i nostri indici a livelli inferiori di quelli di Marzo e credo poi che da li la testa sarà difficile rialzarla! Paolo L..
È vero che anche Nouriel Roubini ha detto che il peggio dovrebbe essere ormai alle spalle?
dicono che anche Roubini si sia convertito alla " luce in fondo al tunnel ".............cosè Obama gli ha fatto un regalo ??? poi però dice ripresa anemica double dip a fine 2010 bla bla bla ...............insomma ormai è diventato il mercato delle vacche fare previsioni .................o mi sbaglio ???? se il loro rapporto debito /pil ha passato il 90% e i disoccupati non fanno altro che aumentare sono spacciati e basta ...............non vedo cosa li possa salvare a parte la " super svalutazione delle valute mondiale " che stà facendo il giro dei blog.........................a il povero Hal Turner gli è costata l'arresto............poi dicono incitava al nazismo.........ma che balle ..................anche voi ci pensate a questa ipotesi ???
Posta un commento