MONTEPASCHI
Ecco cosa scrive oggi un sito di finanza molto seguito all'estero...
Should Italy copy Iceland?
Minority investors in Monte dei Paschi might suggest a Banca d’Italia trip to Reykjavik. There regulators seem to have put the kibosh on a reckless bank deal. Perhaps the Italians could do the same for MPS’s extravagant Antonveneta acquisition. Unfortunately, it’s not likely.
MPS/Antonveneta: Should Italy be more like Iceland? Minority shareholders in Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third biggest bank, might think so. In Iceland, objections from financial regulators helped save Kaupthing from consummating an extravagant purchase - Dutch merchant bank NIBC. If Italy’s regulators could follow suit, MPS might be spared completing the acquisition of rival Antonveneta from Spain’s Santander.
MPS is paying far too much. Even factoring in the present value of the deal’s rich synergies, the bank appears to forking out nearly 20 times this year’s earnings for Antonveneta, more than twice the average multiple for Italian peers.
Overpaying hasn’t concerned MPS’s biggest shareholder, the Monte dei Paschi di Siena Foundation. But that politically-connected organisation may have its own agenda. The acquisition would give it control of a group which, after Unicredit and IntesaSanpaolo, would be the third member of Italy’s banking superleague.
The deal hasn’t done other shareholders any favours. MPS shares have fallen 25% since the tie-up was unveiled, compared with a 16% drop for European peers. That implies that investors believe the deal will destroy about E1.3bn. In theory, scrapping the acquisition should put that value back onto the bank’s shares.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the Bank of Italy will offer minorities a helping hand. The combined banks’ market share and capital strength don’t appear to offer grounds for the Bank to act. And even if they did, crushing the deal completely would be a big call when so many of Italy’s big guns want the country’s financial jewels protected.
Minorities don’t appear to have an obvious way of upsetting this value destructive deal. Foundation support should get MPS past one potential troublespot – a shareholder vote on a E5bn rights issue. But that doesn’t make protest totally futile. A strong vote against the rights issue would fire a warning shot to other controlling shareholders intent on trampling smaller investors’ interests. And failing to buy into it may save them some money, to judge by Fortis, which paid generously for ABN Amro last year. Fortis shares have fallen below the price of the deeply discounted rights issue which helped fund the acquisition.
mike.verdin@breakingviews.com
Praticamente suggerisce alla Banca d'Italia di andare in islanda e di chiedere come si è recentemente comportata la Banca centrale Islandese davanti ad una operazione analoga. BLOCCANDOLA.
Poi il commento ironico finale.....In Italia è poco probabile che succeda la stessa cosa. Anche loro sanno che in Italia ci sono i poteri forti e nulla si può contro di loro.
La notizia arriva da "market view", autorevole fonte finanziaria.
Chissà...forse hanno letto il nostro blog.
Comunque sia il Montepaschi ci fa proprio una gran brutta figura.
Should Italy copy Iceland?
Minority investors in Monte dei Paschi might suggest a Banca d’Italia trip to Reykjavik. There regulators seem to have put the kibosh on a reckless bank deal. Perhaps the Italians could do the same for MPS’s extravagant Antonveneta acquisition. Unfortunately, it’s not likely.
MPS/Antonveneta: Should Italy be more like Iceland? Minority shareholders in Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third biggest bank, might think so. In Iceland, objections from financial regulators helped save Kaupthing from consummating an extravagant purchase - Dutch merchant bank NIBC. If Italy’s regulators could follow suit, MPS might be spared completing the acquisition of rival Antonveneta from Spain’s Santander.
MPS is paying far too much. Even factoring in the present value of the deal’s rich synergies, the bank appears to forking out nearly 20 times this year’s earnings for Antonveneta, more than twice the average multiple for Italian peers.
Overpaying hasn’t concerned MPS’s biggest shareholder, the Monte dei Paschi di Siena Foundation. But that politically-connected organisation may have its own agenda. The acquisition would give it control of a group which, after Unicredit and IntesaSanpaolo, would be the third member of Italy’s banking superleague.
The deal hasn’t done other shareholders any favours. MPS shares have fallen 25% since the tie-up was unveiled, compared with a 16% drop for European peers. That implies that investors believe the deal will destroy about E1.3bn. In theory, scrapping the acquisition should put that value back onto the bank’s shares.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the Bank of Italy will offer minorities a helping hand. The combined banks’ market share and capital strength don’t appear to offer grounds for the Bank to act. And even if they did, crushing the deal completely would be a big call when so many of Italy’s big guns want the country’s financial jewels protected.
Minorities don’t appear to have an obvious way of upsetting this value destructive deal. Foundation support should get MPS past one potential troublespot – a shareholder vote on a E5bn rights issue. But that doesn’t make protest totally futile. A strong vote against the rights issue would fire a warning shot to other controlling shareholders intent on trampling smaller investors’ interests. And failing to buy into it may save them some money, to judge by Fortis, which paid generously for ABN Amro last year. Fortis shares have fallen below the price of the deeply discounted rights issue which helped fund the acquisition.
mike.verdin@breakingviews.com
Praticamente suggerisce alla Banca d'Italia di andare in islanda e di chiedere come si è recentemente comportata la Banca centrale Islandese davanti ad una operazione analoga. BLOCCANDOLA.
Poi il commento ironico finale.....In Italia è poco probabile che succeda la stessa cosa. Anche loro sanno che in Italia ci sono i poteri forti e nulla si può contro di loro.
La notizia arriva da "market view", autorevole fonte finanziaria.
Chissà...forse hanno letto il nostro blog.
Comunque sia il Montepaschi ci fa proprio una gran brutta figura.
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