BLOOMBERG: L'ITALIA LASCERA' L'EUROPA???
Will Italy Leave the Euro? Follow the Money
Will
Italy follow the U.K.'s example and leave the European Union?
Far-fetched as it may seem, capital flows suggest that some people
aren’t waiting to find out.
To keep the euro area's accounts in
balance, Europe's central banks track flows of money among the members
of the currency union. If, for example, a depositor moves 100 euros from
Italy to Germany, the Bank of Italy records a liability to the
Eurosystem and the Bundesbank records a credit. If a central bank starts
building up liabilities rapidly, that tends to be a sign of capital
flight.
Lately, Italy's central bank has been building up a lot of
liabilities to the Eurosystem. As of the end of September, they stood
at about 354 billion euros, up 118 billion from a year earlier -- and up
78 billion since the end of May, before the U.K. voted to leave the EU.
The outflow isn't quite as large as during the sovereign-debt crisis of
2012, but it's still significant. The main beneficiary seems to be
Germany, which has seen its credits to the Eurosystem increase by 160
billion over the past year. Here's a chart showing the cumulative
six-month flows between Italy and Germany and the rest of the euro area:
Why the accelerating outflows from Italy? One
explanation is that people are worried about the state of the country's
banks, which are suffering the consequences of bad lending, poor
governance and a new euro-area oversight system that makes rescues
difficult. Another is political: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has
staked his fate on a December government-reform referendum
that, if it goes against him, could strengthen opponents who want to
force a vote on whether Italy should remain in the common currency, a
key element of the broader union. In that context, it's not surprising
that some depositors prefer not to hold Italian euros, given the chance
that they might eventually be converted into lira.
Either
way, the capital flight doesn’t speak well of confidence in the
European project -- something EU leaders will have to keep in mind as
they negotiate the terms of Britain's exit.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
3 commenti:
Articolo fuorviante a dir poco, chi in Italia vuole un referendum per uscire dall'euro? Poi il flusso di denaro non è solo come fa supporre l' articolo uno spostamento di risparmi, è soprattutto un tracciamento commerciale, se io compro una BMW ad esempio il denaro passa da una banca italiana ad una tedesca e la Bce ascrive un debito per la banca italiana ( che poi è la contropartita del disavanzo commerciale, per cui in realtà più la Germania diventa competitiva più il resto d' Europa si indebita verso la Germania che non può lasciar andare via nessuno dal sistema)...in sostanza se in Italia ci dovesse essere una ripresa dei consumi, assisteremmo ad un aumento di questi "debiti" che quindi non vanno presi necessariamente come un segnale d' allarme come dice l' articolo....
Gianni
Via col vento...
e domani è un altro giorno....
Già bloomberg sbaglia sempre aahhah
Posta un commento