PER BIS IN CINA NON STANNO SCAPPANDO I CAPITALI VERSO L'ESTERNO..MA E' SOLO STATO UN CAMBIO DI PRESTATORE DI DENARO
Interessante analisi della BIS (bank of international settlement) che afferma come l'uscita di capitali dalla cina da meta' 2014 sia stata guidate da SOCIETA' CINESI che hanno chiuso i loro debiti in dollari (anticipando..o seguendo il rafforzamento del dollaro..e indebitandosi sia in Yen che in Euro)
persistent capital outflows from China since mid-2014 were probably
driven more by local companies paying down their dollar-denominated debt
-- in anticipation a stronger U.S. currency -- than investors ditching
Chinese assets, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
The
outpouring of China’s currency “led to two different narratives,”
researchers for the Switzerland-based institution said in a report
Sunday.
“One tells a story of investors selling mainland assets en
masse; the other of Chinese firms paying down their dollar debt. Our
analysis favors the second view, but also points to what both narratives
miss -- the shrinkage of offshore renminbi deposits.”
qualunque sia il motivo..il risultato e' comunque solo uno....LA RIDUZIONE DEI DEPOSITI DEL RENMIMBI OFFSHORE.
The BIS, which warned in December
that emerging-market nations may be borrowing too much too quickly,
examined a record $175 billion net decline in cross-border capital to
China in the July-September period of 2015. Of that, the study showed
just $12 billion of this was official reserves outflows, and the
remainder was private outflows.
Almost
three quarters of the $163 billion of non-reserve outflows was
comprised of factors including a reduction in yuan deposits, which was
counted as $80 billion in capital leaving the country, as well as local
Chinese companies directly repaying $34 billion in foreign-currency debt
to offshore banks and $7 billion to local banks.
Market Crash
The
assertions by the 85-year-old institution, which coordinates the
biggest central banks, sheds some light on China’s economic fragility,
which has riveted investors ever since the $5 trillion stock market
crash last summer.
As the slowdown in Asia’s largest economy
became more evident, it has roiled markets worldwide. China’s
credit-rating outlook this month was lowered to negative
from stable at Moody’s Investors Service, which highlighted the
country’s surging debt burden and questioned the government’s ability to
enact reforms. The country’s total debt-to-GDP ratio
surged to 247 percent last year from 166 percent in 2007, propelled by a
lending binge in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Stable Yuan
Partial
data suggested outflows from China continued in the fourth quarter of
2015. While the reduction of offshore yuan deposits slowed during the
period, repayments of foreign-currency debt by companies accelerated,
the BIS said. Price developments so far this year also suggested greater
strains than in the second half of last year, it said.
The
Chinese central bank’s “declared intention to keep the renminbi stable
in effective terms would imply a weaker renminbi against the dollar were
the dollar to appreciate against major currencies,” the Basel-based
institution said. “In this event, offshore depositors might not hold
onto maturing renminbi deposits and Chinese firms would still have
reason to repay dollar-denominated debt.”
BIS SOSTIENE CHE ...L'AFFERMAZIONE DEL GOVERNO E DELLA BANCA CENTRALE CINESE SULLA STABILITA' DELLA VALUTA IMPLICA UN RENMIMBI PIU' DEBOLE VERSO IL DOLLARO MENTRE IL DOLLARO CONTINUERA' AD APPREZZARSI VERSO TUTE LE VALUTE AL MONDO..
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