PRODI: OCCORRE UN FRONTE "LATINO" CONTRO LA GERMANIA OPPURE L'EURO SI ROMPERA'! (MERCATO LIBERO LO CHIESE AD ACQUI TERME NEL 2010 AL BLOGECONOMYDAY, CI SAREMMO EVITATI UNA CRISI ITALIANA SENZA PRECEDENTI..MA I POTENTI VOLEVANO LA NOSTRA ROVINA
prima di leggere l'articolo ricorda che chi non clicca sulle pubblicita' viene considerato in questo modo da me! se non perdi neppure un secondo per un clic ...sappi che ti considero inferiore, che vorrei che andassi a leggere altri blog...sei semplicemente una testa.. so che questa campagna fa incazare certe persone..bene...cosi' se ne vanno dal blog.PRODI SI E' BEVUTO IL CERVELLO? PARLA DI POSSIBILE ROTTURA DELL'EURO MENTRE SACCOMANNI E LETTA PARLANO DI RIPRESA .
PRODI CON QUESTE PAROLE RINNEGA QUELLO CHE HA SEMPRE SOSTENUTO...SI DA DEL PIRLA ...MA ALMENO HA IL CORAGIO DI AMMETTERE I SUOI GRAVISSIMI ERRORI..-:L'EURO COSI' COM'E' E' DESTINATO A SALTARE
ARTICOLO FANTASTICO DEL TELEGRAPH
SCRITTO DA EVANS -PRITCHARD. MOLTI BLOGS PARLERANNO E TRADURRANNO QUESTO ARTICOLO CHE VI REGALIAMO IN ANTEPRIMA.
NEL CASO NON SI FORMASSE UN FRONTE LATINO E NEL CASO LA GERMANIA CONRINUASSE A ROMPERE I COGLIONI LA ROTTURA DEL'EURO PARE INEVITABILE.
CAZZOLINA..VE LA VEDETE LA FACCIA DEGLI ITALIOTI CON I LORO RISPARMI DEPOSITATI NELE BANCHE ITALIANE IN EURO CATIVI.. PERDERE IL 50% IN UN GIORNO? UNA GODURIA...
The plot is thickening fast in Italy. Romano Prodi – Mr Euro himself –
is calling for a Latin Front to rise up against Germany and force
through a reflation policy before the whole experiment of monetary union
spins out of control.
"France, Italy, and Spain should together pound their fists on the
table, but they are not doing so because they delude themselves that
they can go it alone," he told Quotidiano Nazionale
Should Germany persist in imposing its contractionary ruin on
Europe – "should the euro break apart, with one exchange rate in the
North and one in the South", as he puts it – Germany itself will reap as
it has sown. "Their exchange rate will double and they will not sell a
single Mercedes in Europe. German industrialists know this but all they
manage to secure are slight changes, not enough to end the crisis."
Professor Prodi is the prime minister who prepared Italy for EMU in
the 1990s, and then presided over the launch of the euro as European
Commission chief. Some readers may remember that I crossed swords with
him 15 years ago, but that dispute is ancient history now and has no
bearing on today's economic debate.
He rightly warns that nothing of substance will change as a result of
the Bundestag elections. "German public opinion is by now convinced
that any economic stimulus for the European economy is an unjustified
help for the 'feckless' South, to which I have the honour of belonging.
They are obsessed with inflation, just like teenagers obsessed with sex.
They don't understand that the real problem today in deflation, as I
have been saying for a year," he said.
This is the nub of the matter. The policy regime has become
maniacally restrictive because every decision is filtered through "game
theory" calculations, the belief in Berlin that the naughty Latins will
somehow cheat unless their feet are held to the fire.
The ECB is playing this game too. It is no longer a central bank. It
has become an enforcer of political pressure. The ECB is not even trying
to meet its 2pc inflation target. It has abandoned its 4.5pc M3 money
growth target and its twin pillar monetary structure.
As the Richmond Fed wrote in a paper earlier this year: "The ECB
needs to start recognising that Europe’s problems are more than
structural. It needs to stop using monetary policy as a lever for
achieving structural changes and to end its contractionary policy.”
Be that as it may, Il Professore said the European Union – which he
led for five years – has broken down as functioning system. "Today there
is only one country and only one in command: Germany. "
He said it has long been obvious that Italy cannot restore control
over its public finances in recession conditions. "The debt to GDP ratio
has been rising for three years despite austerity. It is a failed
policy." (119.3pc in 2010, 120.8pc in 2011, 127pc in 2012, 132.3pc in
2013, according to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor).
This too goes to the heart of the matter. Italy is a fiscal saint,
the only major country in the industrial world to run a primary budget
near balance for over seven years, and a surplus this year of 2.5pc of
GDP. Yet the debt trajectory is accelerating upwards.
IL MOTICO: TROPPE TASSE FANNO SMETTERE LA VOGLIA DI LAVORARE ED ACCELERARE LA VOGLIA DI ANDARSENE DAL PAESE (MA SOLO I MILIORI..CN LA VALIGIA DI PELLE...QUELLI CON LA VALIGIA DI CARTONE RIMANGONO )
This is entirely due to the "denominator effect". The contraction of
nominal GDP – the result of a quadruple whammy of tight fiscal, tight
money, tight credit, (regulatory overkill) and a Teutonic exchange rate –
has forced Italy to service a rising debt burden on a shrinking
economic base. It is a classic debt-deflation trap, as described by
Irving Fisher 1933.
Il Professore says Italy should be given a waiver on the €51bn put
aside in budget deficit calculations for EU bail-out policies, giving
the country leeway for a mini-blitz on investment. Better still, the
Maastricht treaty should be changed to eliminate the 3pc deficit
ceiling. "It is stupid that this has not been changed for 20 years. A
3pc deficit makes sense at certain moments, at other times it should be
zero, at others 4pc or 5pc."
Stupidissimo indeed. But instead of revising Maastricht,
Berlin has rammed through the even stupider Fiscal Compact, locking
Europe into 20 years of chronic deflation and depression. (Yes, you
could in theory offset that with monetary stimulus, but the opposite is
happening. EMU monetary policy is becoming tighter and tighter as
incipient deflation raises the "real" interest rate.)
Prof Prodi says Germany is living in an Alice-in-Wonderland world of
intellectual confusion, thinking that it can run a current account
surplus of 7pc of GDP (almost three time's China's surplus), with an
inflation rate of almost zero, without at the same time blocking
recovery. But no amount of protest makes any difference. "It has not
effect on German policy because France, Italy, and Spain lack any common
approach, even though all these countries they have identical
interests."
As readers know, I have been arguing for a long time that the
Greco-Latin Bloc and those with shared interests such as Ireland should
seize control of the European institutions and dictate the policy with a
very sharp knife held to the throat of Berlin's über-bully Wolfgang
Schauble.
They have the majority votes in the EU Council of Ministers. They
have a majority on the ECB's Governing Council, and indeed on other
bodies such as the European Investment Bank, which could be mobilised
for a Marshall Plan (that empty promise from some wretched and now
forgotten EU summit, never delivered like all those New Deal EMU pledges
that came before).
They have natural justice, economic authority, and the EU treaties on
their side. They can and should deploy their combined political power
to impose a full fiscal and monetary reflation strategy on the EU,
Abenomics for Europe. Germany might find that a few years of 3pc
inflation and a mini-boom are not so painful after all. But if it finds
this outcome so intolerable, the exit door is wide open. It can leave
EMU. (And destroy part of its banking system in the process.)
E' OVVIO CHE UNA POLITICA TALE PORTEREBBE A UNA SVALUTAZIONE DELL'EURO CHE AIUTEREBBE L'ITALIA
As Prof Prodi says, nothing is being done to break the vicious circle
– vicious too for Germany in the end, if only they could shake their
collective heads free of so many economic shibboleths – because no Latin
leader has yet emerged to carry the fight. The issue has apparently
become less urgent over the summer as Europe's recession touched bottom.
A few green shoots allowed everybody to engage in another round of
wishful thinking, but this is a trap.
LA TRAPPOLA DELLA FINTA CRESCITA
In the end, the leadership must come from France, still the great and
generous heart of Europe. That may happen yet, even if Francois
Hollande gives every impression of being a vacillating amateur, buffeted
by events, incapable of saying boo to a mouse. Record unemployment must
ultimately stiffen his spine, and if he cannot rise to the challenge,
his governing authority in France will collapse, and perhaps the Fifth
Republic will collapse with it. We must not let this happen to France.
But the fact that Italy's Mr Euro is saying such extraordinary things
is itself a sign of the tectonic rumblings in the Latin world. Every
week it seems that yet another towering figure of the European cause
joins the rebels. For me personally, it is refreshing to be part of
consensus at last.
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4 commenti:
Scusa la mia incapacità ma non riesco a vedere la pubblicità, fino a pochi giorni fa ho sempre cliccato più volte
Grazie per la pazienza
la svalutazione è una trappola mortale infatti viene proposta dal prodissimo che ha già fatto troppi danni ma certa gente come mai parla ancora?!
Paolo, dimmi sinceramente,
tu leggerai sicuramente zerohedge e dopo fai donazioni?
ANONIMO DELLE 12.48 ma chi è che ha parlato delle donazioni??? me lo spieghi orca paletta...io parlo di una cosa e la gente rispnde con un altra....
si tratta di un semplice clic pubblicitario e non donazioni. personalmente ogni volta che vado su un sito amico clicco la sua pubblicita'. questione di stile...
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