FINANCIAL TIMES: ITALIANI CHE CAZZO ASPETTATE A RITIRARE I SOLDI DALLE BANCHE FALLITE
LA RAZIONALITA' PRIMA DI TUTTO....L'EUROPA HA COMMESSO UN ERRORE ENORME NEL PERMETTERE DI TASSARE I CONTI CORRENTI.
OGGI SI DICE CHE IL CASO DI CIPRIO E' UNICO, CHE IL PESO NELLA ECONOMIA DEL SETTORE BANCARIO ERA SPROPORZIONATA...
MA IN GRECIA HANNO RISTRUTTURATO LE OBBLIGAZIONI ...RUBANDO SOLDI AI DETENTORI DI OBBLIGAZIONI DELLO STATO, A CIPRO, ESSENDO POCHE LE OBBLIGAZIONI STATALI...HANO ATTACCATO LA RICCHEZZA DEI CITTADINI, ANCHE QUELLI CON POCHI SPICCIOLI SUI CONTI.
UN DOMANI DIRANNO CHE E' GIUSTO PRENDERLI DAI CONTI DEGLI ITALIANI IN QUANTO SONO TUTTI MAFIOSI ED EVASORI...
L'EUROPA HA CREATO LE BASI RAZIONALI PER LA CORSA AL RITIRO DEI CONTANTI DALLE BANCHE...E IL PROCESSO E' SOLO AL'INIZIO
Europe is risking a bank run
By Wolfgang Münchau
Nel pezzo Wolfgang Münchau si domanda come sia possibile che i risparmiatori di alcuni paesi europei – Italia compresa – ancora non abbiano ritirato i propri soldi dalle banche, ritenendolo ad oggi, soprattutto dopo la "rapina cipriota", il comportamento più razionale da tenere nei confronti dei propri risparmi.
La cosa davvero sconcertante è perché la gente a Cipro non abbia ritirato i propri soldi prima? Non hanno letto i giornali? Forse avevano fiducia nel nuovo presidente di Cipro, che aveva promesso che mai, avrebbe accettato questo diktat europeo? E perché non ancora c'è stata una corsa alle banche negli altri paesi dell'Europa meridionale? Forse anche loro, si fidano dei loro governi? Ancora più importante, continuano a farlo ora?Ci sono alcuni impedimenti istituzionali all'interno della zona euro. Alcuni paesi impongono limiti di prelievo giornalieri, ufficialmente come misura contro il riciclaggio di denaro. Né è facile aprire un conto bancario in un paese straniero. In molti casi, è necessario avere la residenza.
Ma non farei troppo affidamento su tali impedimenti. Una volta che la paura raggiunge una massa critica, la gente agisce, e quindi una corsa agli sportelli diventa un processo di auto-alimenta. C'è stato un sacco di compiacimento per la crisi della zona euro negli ultimi otto mesi. Molte persone, hanno pensato – erroneamcne – che la crisi fosse finita. i risparmiatori ora capiscono che se la crisi era finita, era solo perché la zona euro aveva trovato una nuova fonte di finanziamento: i loro risparmi. Non ho idea se ci sarà una corsa agli sportelli nelle prossime settimane. Ma sicuramente sarebbe razionale.
Creditor nations will now insist bank rescues must be co-funded by depositors Sir Mervyn King once said it was not rational to start a bank run but rational to participate in one once it has started. The governor of the Bank of England was right, of course. On Saturday morning, the finance ministers of the eurozone may well have started a bank run. With the agreement on a depositor haircut for Cyprus – in all but name – the eurozone has effectively defaulted on a deposit insurance guarantee for bank deposits. That guarantee was given in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It consisted of a series of nationally co-ordinated guarantees. They wanted to make the political point that all savings are safe.
I am using the expressions “in all but name” and “effectively” because legally, Cyprus is not defaulting or imposing losses on depositors. The country is levying a tax of 6.75 per cent on deposits of up to €100,000, and a tax of 9.9 per cent above that threshold. Legally, this is a wealth tax. Economically, it is a haircut.
I just could not believe it when I heard that eurozone finance ministers went after the small depositors in Cyprus.
The Germans rejected a loan which they were certain Cyprus would invariably default on. So the sum was cut to €10bn. A depositor haircut was the only way to co-finance this. When they did the maths, they found the big deposits would not have sufficed. So they opted for a wealth tax with hardly any progression. There is not even an exemption for people with only very small savings.
If one wanted to feed the political mood of insurrection in southern Europe, this was the way to do it. The long-term political damage of this agreement is going to be huge. In the short term, the danger consists of a generalised bank run, not just in Cyprus.
As in the case of Greece, the finance ministers said: “Don’t worry, this is a unique situation”. This is true only in a very narrow legal sense. The bond haircut in Greece is indeed different to the depositor haircut in Cyprus. And when they repeat this elsewhere, it will be unique once more.
Unless there is a last-minute reprieve for small savers, most Cypriot savers would act rationally if they withdrew the rest of their money simply to protect them from further haircuts or taxes.It would be equally rational for savers elsewhere in southern Europe to join them. The experience of Cyprus tells them that the solvency of a deposit insurance scheme is only as good as that of the state. In view of Italy’s public sector debt ratio, or the combined public and private sector indebtedness of Spain and Portugal, there is no way that these governments can insure all banks’ deposits on their own.
The Cyprus rescue has shown that the creditor nations will insist from now that any bank rescue must be co-funded by depositors.
The really puzzling thing is why did people not withdraw their money before? Did they not read the newspapers? Maybe they trusted the new president of Cyprus, who had promised them that he would never accept this? And why has there been so little deposit flight elsewhere in southern Europe? Did they, too, trust their governments? More importantly, will they continue to do so now?
There are some institutional impediments against bank runs within the eurozone. Some countries impose daily withdrawal limits, ostensibly as a measure against money laundering. Nor is it easy to open a bank account in a foreign country. In many cases, you need to have residency. You may need to travel there in person, and you need to speak the local language – or at least English.
But I would not take too much comfort from those impediments. Once fear reaches a critical mass, people will act, and then a bank run becomes a self-perpetuating process. There has been a lot of complacency about the eurozone crisis in the past eight months.
Many people even thought the crisis was over because Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, gave a lender-of-last-resort guarantee. Bank depositors now understand that if the crisis was over, then that was only because the eurozone had found a new source of funding: their savings.
I have no idea whether or not there will be a bank run in the next few weeks. But surely it would be rational.
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