ATTENZIONE LA FED POTREBBE VENDERE I TITOLI A 10 ANNI - IL RIALZO DEI TASSI SI ALLONTANA? IL DOLLARO A 1,06
Rosengren della Fed di Boston ha sollevato un importante dubbio...se i tassi di interesse dovessero stabilmente essere destinati a salire ...allora sarebbe il caso di rivedere la politica di bilancio della FED stessa che si trova in pancia 4 miliardi di dollari di treasuries
nell'articolo del financial time si evidenzia la possibilita' di cambiare la duration vendendo titoli a lungo e comprare titoli a breve.
L'effetto sul mercato sarebbe quello di irripidire la curva (tenendo schiacciati di fatto i tassi a breve ma alzando i tassi a lungo.....)
TANTO E' BASTATO PER PORTARE IL DOLLARO A INDEBOLIRSI ......ERANO IN TANTI INFATTI A SCOMMETTERE IN UN RIALZO DEI TASSI A BREVE...
rialzo che potrebbe essere rimandato ...in cambio di una curva artificiosamente piu' ripida..
The Federal Reserve should be ready to consider reducing the size of its balance sheet as part of its efforts to prevent overheating in the US, a senior policymaker said as he noted the pick-up in wage inflation and predicted a return of inflation to target by the end of the year.
Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that if the Fed is in a position to lift rates with “more alacrity” than the one-a-year pace of rate rises seen in the past two years, then officials should be willing to debate reductions in the size of its huge asset portfolio.
If the central bank continues only lifting rates at a speed of 25 basis points a year, there was “no rush” to worry about the balance sheet, he added.
“We should be considering it now, and at what point the committee actually decides to take action we will have to see,” he said in a telephone interview with the Financial Times. “But my own criteria would be if we think the economy is strong enough that we are going to need to do multiple tightenings . . . at that time we should be seriously thinking about reducing the balance sheet.”
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He believes that yields will continue to move higher in the year ahead and bases it as much on on technicals not fundamentals. He highlights the decades-long downtrend in yields that is suddenly under threat and that 2.60% is the key level.
His conclusion is that this trendline -- and what it represents -- is the most important level in the world:
"If 2.60% is broken on the upside - if yields move higher than 2.60% - a secular bear bond market has begun. Watch the 2.6% level. Much more important than Dow 20,000. Much more important than $60-a-barrel oil. Much more important that the Dollar/Euro parity at 1.00. It is the key to interest rate levels and perhaps stock price levels in 2017."
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