ITALIA PRONTA A CROLLARE!!! PAROLA DI WOLFGANG MUNCHAU - FINANCIAL TIME - GATTE DA PELARE PER RENZI
Wolfgang Münchau
He
is asking the Italians to agree a number of reforms to streamline their
political system. The proposals are sensible. But Italians view the
referendum as an opportunity for a midterm anti-government vote. Mr
Renzi promised he would resign if he loses. If he does, it will have
been a monumental error of judgment on the scale of Mr Cameron’s.
Opinion polls have been showing a small lead for Yes but they are likely
to be as unreliable as those in the UK. My Italian friends are telling
me Mr Renzi may well lose, in which case he would either resign
immediately or call elections in early 2017.
The implications of Brexit for Italy are extremely troubling for
three reasons.
1) First, consider the economic impact. Italy’s economy has
been in a weak recovery after a long recession. The British vote will
have a significant effect on growth in the eurozone. But for Italy this
means a reversion to a growth rate to below 1 per cent or worse.
2) Second, watch out for the Italian banks, which are woefully
undercapitalised. A recent scheme to recapitalise the system has been a
disappointment. The only options left to save it are a programme under
the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which Mr Renzi
will surely resist, or a break with a long list of EU rules on
competition policy and bank bailouts.
3)Third, and most important, the political impact of
a lost referendum will be disastrous. Either Mr Renzi keeps his promise
to resign or he limps on to the next election. The technical details of
the scenario that would then prevail are complex but the party most
likely to benefit is the populist anti-establishment Five Star Movement.
Beppe Grillo, its leader, last week reiterated his call for a
referendum on Italy’s membership of the eurozone. As the results of the
recent mayoral elections in Rome and Turin have shown, Mr Grillo’s party
should not be underestimated.
The political dynamic in Italy is not much different from the one in
the UK. The electorate is in an insurrectionary mood. The country has
had virtually no productivity growth since it joined the euro in 1999.
The Italian political establishment has until recently been as
dismissive of its chances of losing the referendum as the British
establishment was until Friday morning. They are still dismissive of the
chances of a Five Star victory — and will be until the moment it
happens.
In my view, that outcome is at least as probable as Mr Renzi emerging
victorious from this mess. The Italian public has reasons to demand
fundamental change. Unlike in the UK, unemployment there is high. Mr
Renzi’s own administration has failed to break with corruption scandals
and, most important of all, has failed to sort out the country’s
economy.
A Pew Research Center poll
on attitudes towards European integration in the largest member states
suggests that the Italians and the Greeks view the EU’s economic
governance most negatively. I am not surprised.
Nor am I surprised that people are beginning to blame the euro for
the economic problems. An Italian exit from the single currency would
trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.
It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history,
dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall
Street crash. But my sense is that those who would advocate an Italian
departure might even relish bringing down the whole house.
To prevent such a calamity, EU leaders should seriously consider
doing what they have failed to do since 2008: resolve the union’s
multiple crises rather than muddle through. And that will have to
involve a plan for the political union of the eurozone countries.
Britain is not the cause for any of this. The eurozone and its
appallingly weak leaders are to blame. But Brexit may well be the
trigger.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
4 commenti:
il motivo è che catto....infatti iol renzos nn è anche lui catto......è la fregatura dell'itaglia..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zCG6VY-7cg
.......puoi pubblicare la traduzione ....??....grazie...!!
You dont deserve it
Posta un commento