L'ITALIA RIPARTE SOLO ATTIRANDO I RICCHI E I BRAVI E CACCIANDO I POVERI E INCAPACI


LE RISERVE CINESI ANCORA IN CALO PESANTE A GENNAIO

 chart china FX reserves

La cina ha appena annunciato la riduzione dele riserve di genaio: siamo a 3,23 trilion dollar (le attese erano per una discesa a 3,21) il mese scorso erano a 3,33.
Il calo continua a rimanere significativo e rappresenta la fatica della banca centrale cinese a difendere il valore dello YUAN.
La discesa del dollaro di questa settimana potrebbe attenuare il flusso ulteriormente in febbraio
SE COSI' NON FOSSE ..LA RIDUZIONE DELLE RISERVE ACCUMULATE POTREBBE OBBLIGARE LA CINA A SVALUTARE LO YUAN CON CONSEGUENZE CATASTROFICHE...100 MILIARDI AL MESE ..CON RISERVE PARI A 3,23 MILIARDI ...DAREBBERO SOLO 32 MESI DI SOPRAVVIVENZA PRIMA DI AZZERARE LE RISERVE VALUTARIE.
UN DOLLARO DEBOLE (ESSENDO IL DOLLARO PEGATO CON LO YUAN ....PER ORA....) AIUTA LA RIDUZIONE DEL PROCESSO DI EROSIONE DELLE RISERVE.


A sign displaying the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese yuan currency signs sits outside a currency exchange store in Hong Kong, China

The Chinese government has been battling to reduce the net outflows through a range of interventions, from supporting the currency to loosening restrictions on inbound foreign investment.
Foreign exchange reserves dropped $99.5bn to $3.23tn in January, according to central bank data released on Sunday. That was slightly lower than the monthly fall of $107.9bn in December, which was the biggest on record.
With China’s economy growing at its slowest pace since 1990, and investors worried about a possible hard landing, Beijing faces a dilemma. If it eases monetary policy to boost activity it risks undermining its recent efforts to support the currency, further undermining investor confidence.
A weaker currency would boost the competitiveness of China’s exports at a time when competitors such as South Korea and Japan have seen their currencies fall relative to the US dollar. But it would add to the outflows and encourage further speculative bets against the renminbi, putting more pressure on the foreign exchange reserves.
 The PBOC is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, facing a choice of either continued slow erosion of FX reserves, or a rapid currency adjustment that could be destabilizing for China and plunge global currency markets into turmoil. Further sharp yuan devaluation remains one of the key downside risks to the global economic outlook in 2016, due to the shock waves it will cause in global currency markets.
 In such a downside risk scenario where the PBOC capitulates due to further rapid erosion of FX reserves and there is significant further yuan devaluation, this could also cause shocks in China’s corporate debt markets, as Chinese non-bank borrowers hold a large amount of USD debt, estimated at USD 1.2 trillion in mid-2015. The combination of moderating Chinese growth, excess capacity in key industries, rising USD yields and a potential further yuan slide against the USD all create risks of further stress for some Chinese corporate borrowers, which could trigger an increasing number of corporate debt defaults in 2016.

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1 commento:

Anonimo ha detto...

"La discesa del dollaro di questa settimana potrebbe attenuare il flusso ulteriormente in febbraio"

QUINDI.....?????????