I TEDESCHI VOGLIONO LA TESTA (OPS...I SOLDI) DEI RISPARMIATORI GRECI !!!
LE BANCHE GRECHE SONO IN MANO ALLA TROIKA....il governo greco non ha piu' alcun potere. le azioni probabilmente andranno a zero...e cosi' le obbligazioni...
Ci saranno fusioni e acquisizioni e il sistema bancario greco diverra' l'ennesima colonia tedesca. Chi controlla il sistema bancario controlla di fatto l'intero sistema aziendale e politico del paese.
Si sta cercando di capire quanto soldi siano necessari per salvare la banche ...si pensa 20 miliardi ma potrebbero essere molti di piu'...alcuni arrivano a ipotizzare ben 50...
E CHI METTERA' QUESTI SOLDI??? TUTTI LA BCE, IL FONDO SALVASTATI? CHI ESATTAMENTE?
ESISTE UNA ALTA PROBABILITA' CHE A PAGARE IL CONTO DEL BAIL IN SIANO I POCHI COGLIONI GRECHI CHA HANNO LASCIATO SUL CONTO PIU' DI 100.000 EURO...(e tanta grazia...dato che alcuni in germania volevano prelevare parti di risparmio a partire dagli 8000 euro)
La germania è molto preoccupata ...non vuol divulgare l'enorme buco nero..per non terrorizzare i mercati..almeno fino a quando non si sia trovata una soluzione.
I greci sono fortissimi e oramai vivono senza le banche avendo prelevato in precedenza..non investono, non prendono a prestito..alcune aziende chiudono o si spostano all'estero...(anche gli armatori pensano di lasciare la penisola greca se gli aumenteranno le tasse...OGNI GIORNO IL BUCO AUMENTA,....
leggete cosa dice REUTERS sui controlli di capitale (che io chiamerei confische vere e proprie)
Greek banks are set to keep broad cash controls in place for months, until fresh money arrives from Europe and with it a sweeping restructuring, officials believe.
ma il denaro fresco arrivera' solo dopo il bail in...delle banche
CONTINUA A LEGGERE...Rehabilitating the country's banks poses a difficult question. Should the euro zone take a stake in the lenders, first requiring bondholders and even big depositors to shoulder a loss, or should
the bill for fixing the banks instead be added to Greece's debt mountain?Answering this could hold up agreement on a third bailout deal for Greece that negotiators want to conclude within weeks. The longer it takes, the more critical the banks' condition becomes as a 420 euro ($460) weekly limit on cash withdrawals chokes the economy and borrowers' ability to repay loans."The banks are in deep freeze but the economy is getting weaker," said one official, pointing to a steady rise in loans that are not being repaid.
Fitch noted that the total amount proposed of 25 billion euros for the Greek bank recap is sufficient unless deferred tax assets stop being considered as core capital. According to Fitch, 45 percent of the four systemic lenders’ core capital consists of deferred tax assets. The agency estimated the capital requirements at 11.2 billion euros on the condition that nonperforming loans amount to 52 percent of loan portfolios, while the adverse scenario seeing bad loans at 60 percent would entail capital needs of 15.9 billion euros.
A 60% NPLs on €210 billion in loans would mean that up to 30% of Greek deposits of about €120 billion currently would be wiped out, or "bailed-in."
And that is the optimistic scenario. The likelihood is that the Greek economy has collapsed to a level where nobody is paying their loan interest or maturity. As such as an even greater NPL percentage is now quite probable. But one thing is certain: with every passing day in which Greece does not have a viable resolution of its banks, the NPLs will keep rising, and the ultimate deposit haircut will be that much greater. As a result Germany is already demaning a bail-in of large depositors, those holding over the "insured" threshold of €100,000 with Greek banks, in a repeat of the Cyprus depositor bail-in template.
"We want, if possible, an initial amount to be ready for the first needs of the banks," said one official at the Greek finance ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "That should be about 10 billion euros."Others, including Germany, however, are lukewarm and could push for losses for large depositors with more than 100,000 euros on their accounts, or bondholders.
The amount of large depositors in Greece is about €20 billion according to Reuters calculations (far greater than the €3 billion in bonds issues which will certainly be wiped out in any major recap), which suggests that if a bail-in takes place, then some depositors with savings of less than €100,000 will also have to be impaired.
Furthermore, as we also explained a month ago, unlike in Cyprus where the biggest depositors were Russian billionaire oligarchs, who had zero leverage and even less sympathy with Europe's depositors, in Greece the situation could not be more different especially since the local shipping magnates keep the bulk of their cash overseas:
Imposing a loss, something the Greek government has repeatedly denied any planning for, would be controversial, not least because much of this money is held by small Greek companies rather than wealthy individuals."This is not like Cyprus where you can say these are just Russian oligarchs," said an insolvency lawyer familiar with Greece. "It's the very community everyone is hoping will resuscitate Greece, namely the corporates. You'll end up depriving them of their cash."
None of this should be a surprise either: recall in June 2013 we explained that "Europe Make Cyprus "Bail-In" Regime Continental Template." But while the French member of the ECB, Christian Noyer, is against depositor bail-ins, Germany is all for it:
The tone in Berlin is different, where some advocate not only that bank creditors foot the bill but also that the ESM steer clear of any direct stake, lumbering Athens with the banks' clean-up."The recapitalization will have to be done by the Greek government so that means more money in the third program," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research. "It's a loan they have to repay but there is no risk-sharing on the European side. They will have to bail in the private creditors. I can't see how this could not happen."
The most likely outcome for the Greek banks is a wholesale bailout by the ESM. That, however, comes with major strings attached:
One option, according to euro zone officials, is the direct recapitalization of Greece's banks by the euro zone's rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).This could grant the Luxembourg-based authority a direct stake in the banks and greater control over their future.That, however, would take Greece closer to the Cyprus model. Any such direct ESM aid requires that losses first be imposed on some of the banks' bondholders and even large depositors.
So Greece is damned if it does, and damned if it doesn't.
And here is why we made such a big deal of Greece handing over controls of its banks to the ECB as we reported in mid July:
To avoid such orders, Athens is battling to keep autonomy in deciding the fate of its banks. Ceding further control could cost it dearly. Bondholders are nervous.
Alas, Greece already ceded control, remember: that was one of the main conditions for the Third Greek bailout, all of which we explained on July 13 in "Greece Just Lost Control Of Its Banks, And Why Deposit Haircuts Are Imminent."
At this point the only leverage Greece may have, having squandered all of its true leverage when it decided not to pursue a "parallel-currency" system after the Referendum, is mere empathy with the rest of Europe's population; however with its ruling socialists backtracking on all their promises and in fact pushing Greece into an austerity program harsher than anything seen yet, not even the leftist parties in Europe care any more if Tsipras' government survives.
Indeed, Reuters summarizes the situation quite well when it says that "with its economy starved of cash and the threat of its departure from the euro zone hanging over talks, Athens' room for maneuver is limited. One euro zone official summarized the mood: "Whatever sympathy there was for Greece has evaporated."
Which is indeed the truth, and this time, Greece only has itself to blame.
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2 commenti:
Paolo...stai descrivendo la situazione bancaria greca di oggi o la situazione bancaria dell' Italia tra qualche anno che sarà simile ??
tra qualche anno ??? tra qualche mese vorrai dire...ahahhahah
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